James Annan is a scientist I would classify as a climatological moderate, because he thinks that what is known as sensitivity to atmospheric C02 is a little overestimated, so he forecasts temps to rise into a somewhat lower range (about 3C) than the IPCC estimates (between 2.5 and 4.1C).
He drops in a couple of qualifications. He doesn’t entirely dismiss the possibility of sudden change, and he mentions the regional costs of drought. He doesn’t mention the likelyhood of massive extinctions. But with all that said, Annan nonetheless makes an important argument:
"To boldly assert as axiomatic that "change = bad" is, I think, rather
naive and simplistic."
He has examples in mind. Warmer winters in the UK will likely mean fewer deaths overall, he says, even factoring in more heat waves such as the one in 2005 that killed over 25,000 people in Europe. And he thinks the opening of the Northwest Passage will spur trade.
Personally, I think Mr. Annan underestimates the risks of what is commonly known as global warming, and the enormity of the changes it will bring. But I very much respect him, and think you should read his argument, which unfortunately he has yet to post on his site, but so far only as a post in the GlobalChange Google group.
Take a look, and if you can, please tell me what you think.
Kit Stolz 