"I told you so" is so much less interesting than an argument — unfortunately for those of us interested in preserving our traditional climate. A recent story in the San Diego Union-Tribune looked at the predictions of a team of scientists at Oregon State University and found they were right on the money.
The flames that have consumed much of San Diego
County and Southern California “are consistent with what the latest
modeling (studies) show,” said Ronald Neilson, a professor at Oregon
State University and a bioclimatologist for the U.S. Forest Service.
“This is exactly what we’ve been predicting to happen, both in fire forecasts for this year and in longer-term patterns,” Neilson said.
Five years ago, Neilson and other Oregon State
University researchers predicted that periodic increases in rain and
snowfall, combined with higher temperatures and rising levels of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere, would spur vegetation growth. That would add
to already extensive quantities of fuel caused by decades of fire
suppression, in which blazes are not allowed to burn out of control and
thereby eliminate dead or dying vegetation.
Controversy? Priceless — sure to get headlines. Getting it right? Apparently, that’s boring.
Sigh.
Kit Stolz 