For those of us who are suffering through seemingly endless heat and dryness, to hear of a possible change in the forecast is comforting, and yes, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center does see increased chances for an El Niño this fall.
Supported by model forecasts and the continued warmth across the Pacific Ocean, there is increased confidence for a weak-to-moderate El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2012-13. El Niño conditions are likely to develop during August or September 2012 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).
Also reassuring — the forecast sees little chance of another La Niña.
Kit Stolz 
Less reassuring is that ENSO is a lot less deterministic as to weather behavior than many have come to think of late.
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True. These broad patterns (towards a wet, warm winter on the West Coast, or a cold, dry winter) are probabilistic only. Have you seen research that indicates they could be becoming less deterministic?
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