SoCal 2014 water year forecast: Dryness, but…

For California, the Department of Water Resources releases an "experimental" long-term forecast, based on ocean indices. Lead forecaster Dr. Klaus Wolter of NOAA predicts — as he did last year — dryness, but opens the door to the possibility of an El Nino developing in spring. The forecast's three central predictions for the 2014 waterContinue reading “SoCal 2014 water year forecast: Dryness, but…”

President Obama talks climate: 12 hottest years, in last 15

The earth’s getting warmer: “Yes, it’s true that no single event makes a trend. But the fact is, the 12 hottest years on record have all come in the last 15.” President Obama, in the State of the Union Address: You can see that in NOAA’s record of global temperatures. From Ezra Klein's Wonkblog. Weather nerdsContinue reading “President Obama talks climate: 12 hottest years, in last 15”

No El Nino or La Nina this year, just La Nada

Like the headline the Star put on my story from Saturday: No El Nino or La Nina this year, just La Nada.  The crucial quote couple of graphs from the story, featuring media star and friend Bill Patzert: Veteran forecaster Bill Patzert, who works with the NASA-affiliated Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena on long-range forecastsContinue reading “No El Nino or La Nina this year, just La Nada”

What is going on with the alleged El Nino of 2012?

Six months ago, temperatures in the equatorial Pacific suggested that, after two years under the influence of La Niña, which tends to mean cold dry winters here in Southern California, that our ocean was turning towards an El Niño condition. Under that condition, warm temperatures and westerlies in the equatorial Pacific predispose those of usContinue reading “What is going on with the alleged El Nino of 2012?”

Possible good news: El Niño conditions developing

For those of us who are suffering through seemingly endless heat and dryness, to hear of a possible change in the forecast is comforting, and yes, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center does see increased chances for an El Niño this fall.  Supported by model forecasts and the continued warmth across the Pacific Ocean, thereContinue reading “Possible good news: El Niño conditions developing”

Could global warming give us late, light flu seasons?

In Ventura, the Star's first-rate health and society reporter Tom Kisken documents the lightest flu season in decades. Seriously, for some reason, it's been 29 years since the flu season took until February to get started. Usually it happens by Christmas. That's according to the official Centers for Disease Control. Why so late? In CaliforniaContinue reading “Could global warming give us late, light flu seasons?”

La Niña misses SoCal, hits Sun Belt

As we've been discussing over the last few months, this past year's La Niña has been a bust in Southern California. What was expected to be a dry winter with winds and heat turned out to be a wet, blustery winter with massive Sierran snowpack.  But not so across the U.S! As the NY Times reportedContinue reading “La Niña misses SoCal, hits Sun Belt”

La Niña dry winter prediction fails in 2010, experts agree

This fall experts, including the Forest Service, were predicting a strong La Niña condition likely to produce a dry winter, with heat and Santa Ana winds. The oceanic pattern developed, but the prediction?  Bzzzttt! Wrong. Here in Ventura County, we're at roughtly 150% of normal, and got pounded by about six inches of rain over theContinue reading “La Niña dry winter prediction fails in 2010, experts agree”

Thin ice in the Arctic means cold winters back East?

Put perhaps as simply as possible, that's the speculation among some experts about the cold snowy winters experienced this year in many Northern hemisphere climates, such as New York. Here's the most concise, detailed explanation I've found so far, from Climate Central: Recent scientific studies have shown that the dramatic warming that has been occurringContinue reading “Thin ice in the Arctic means cold winters back East?”

What the heck is going on with this La Niña?

Isn't it supposed to be cold and dry in SoCal during a La Niña, not wet and warm? Craig Miller of KQED asks questions, and gets answers from the helpful Kevin Trenberth of NCAR: "In La Niña conditions, which is what we have now, the main storms that come into North America come barreling intoContinue reading “What the heck is going on with this La Niña?”