Real Hurricane to Hit New York on Tax Day?

That’s what Dr. Jeff Masters, a forecaster’s forecaster, is suggesting. Category 1, mind you, but still!

If the worst case scenarios of the models come true, the Tax Day Storm of 2007 could cause extensive moderate to severe coastal flooding, costing hundreds of millions of dollars. The areas at highest risk appear to be New Jersey, New York (especially New York City), Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. Heavy snow is not expected along the coast, but heavy rains may cause flooding problems. As usual, there is considerable uncertainty about the exact track and intensity of the storm, and we’ll have a better idea Friday what might be in store for New England. However, I believe there is a greater than 50% chance that this Nor’easter will be strong enough to cause significant storm surge flooding along the New England coast. Damages of at least $100 million are likely.

(My italics. GFS  model results for this Monday.)

Storm_forecast_for_tax_day_by_gfs_m

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