The hottest new pollster on the block goes by the name of Five Thirty Eight, has been profiled (here) by Newsweek, and knows more about statistics than I can even imagine. He’s famed for his ability to predict based on the work of polls published by others, which is a little like taking a test based on someone else’s notes, but the fact is — he’s good.
After forecasting a neck-and-neck race for weeks for the White House, just yesterday he ran a new model, and came out (here) with a landslide for Obama. He cautions (if you look down the posts) that polls at this stage have been misleading more often that not for the last few presidential elections, but still…after bittergate and Jeremiah Wright, the Obama wave has rebuilt.
Next question: When will the bandwagon effect kick in? And has any pollster tried to quantify that?