Global warming: the partisan divide, according to polls

According to this graph from well-regarded public policy and polling outfit, PPIC, from a poll taken last summer, most Californians and most Americans believe that global warming has already begun: But it's different among Republicans: one-third believe global warming "will never happen."  How do you compromise those two views?

Ventura Pollster: Obama to Win, Landslide Possible

That’s my headline — the editor had a different version, unfortunately
unsupported by what pollster George Barna actually said. Sigh.
Headlines are so often where newspapers go wrong.

Nonetheless, the story itself (here) is well worth reading. Here’s the crux (highly technical journalism term). I’ll post the rest of the story, without the paper’s headline, below the fold.

“Americans sense that something has gone astray in our political
sphere,” he said. “One of the conclusions widely drawn — especially by
younger voters, — is that attacking one’s opponent more and more
viciously as the campaign progresses, or the farther behind a candidate
falls in the polls is a show of self-interest, not national interest.
Add to that the existing perception that McCain represents the old,
tired politics of Beltway insiders, and you get a public that is not
particularly interested in hearing the old man criticize the younger
man, the white man question the integrity of the black man, or the
career politician challenge the newcomer.”

Barna is a mild-mannered man with
graying hair, and he doesn’t speak in colorful quotes, but the pollster
all but pounds the table on this point.

“People are already
concerned that McCain represents the old way of doing business,” he
said. “They don’t want the next president to be a mud-slinger. They
want him to stay above the fray. They’re worried about the future.”

And here’s the invaluable Supertracker composite of polls via FiveThirtyEight (here). You’ll note that the trend (the red line) is above statistician Nate Silver’s projection, which means the race should tighten, but it’s still looking very good for Obama right now.


Battle of the Pollsters

People say we shouldn’t pay attention to the polls, but in an election like this one, how can a guy resist? Gallup on June 16: Obama 46 — McCain 42. FiveThirtyEight projection for November on June 16:  Obama 51.5 — McCain 48.5 Obama wins 305 electoral votes. Landslide ahead. Their conglomeration of polls showsContinue reading “Battle of the Pollsters”

The Obama Wave Rebuilds

The hottest new pollster on the block goes by the name of Five Thirty Eight, has been profiled (here) by Newsweek, and knows more about statistics than I can even imagine. He’s famed for his ability to predict based on the work of polls published by others, which is a little like taking a testContinue reading “The Obama Wave Rebuilds”