How was that El Nino for you, SoCal?

Emily Green's Chance of Rain posts on the rainy season we had, and our usual dry six months to come, going to Bill Patzert for the meteorolgical crux.

In response to a question, the famous forecaster from JPL/NASA said:

After the Vernal Equinox (lMarch 20th), the
Northern Hemisphere begins to rapidly warm up. This expands the
North Pacific High and shrinks the North Pacific Low.  As the High expands and strengthens, storms
weaken and go farther to the north of California. Also, winds from the
north (the eastern segment of the High) get stronger and upwelling along
our coast picks up. Cooler water, more marine layer; thus, May gray and
June gloom.  The High is strengthening, northerly winds are becoming
steadier, there is more coastal and inland fog, and no North Pacific
storms … our dry six months.

In other words, the pattern is beginning its usual shift. The rain is on the way out, it's warming rapidly, and our spring/summer/fall is coming.

So: How was that El Nino winter for you, Southern California?

In our little nook of Southern California, Upper Ojai, it was lovely. Rainfall is coming it at about 123% of normal. County wide it appears to be almost exactly what forecaster Terry Schaeffer told me back in January, in a story on forecasting El Nino back in January for the Reporter.

Schaeffer predicted that we would have a normal winter, plus about 15%. And a very enjoyable winter it was, too. Everyone I know has been raving about it…here's how it looked in Upper Ojai last weekend.


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