The Bigness of Our Problems; the Smallness of Our Character

Christopher Caldwell is that rare bird: a truly thoughtful conservative. His most recent column for the Financial Times reminds us that whoever wins the election tonight will have a huge economic problem to solve, and that we as a people in the West are in poor condition psychologically to face it:

We should worry less about the bigness of our problems than about
the smallness of our character. We are out of practice at handling a
world of repossessed cars, hand-me-down clothes and canceled vacations
and graduation parties. For many decades, people were steeled against
recession by a knowledge that things could be a lot worse. Britain had
memories of postwar rationing. In the US, 8m people were unemployed
throughout the 1930s. Even people in their mid-40s may remember Edward
Heath’s three-day week and Jimmy Carter’s “malaise” speech.

Most
people, though, are too young to remember that stuff. Perhaps that is
why we are in the mess we are in. The US has not had a deep nationwide
recession since at least 1981-82. The present consumer pessimism has
not been equalled since December 1974, just after the Nixon
resignation, when the US was still reeling from the oil embargo and
President Ford was exhorting citizens to wear buttons that said “whip
inflation now”. The youngest Americans who can remember the difficulty
of paying for their children’s college education under such
circumstances are approaching 70.

The US is not the same
country it was the last time people had to tighten their belts. It has
changed socially, economically and demographically. The range of
problems has widened and the range of solutions has narrowed. Back in
the 1970s, there were relatively few people with credit cards and
hardly any who were “maxed out” on half a dozen. But the US now has
$2,600bn (€2,000bn, £1,600bn) in outstanding non-mortgage debt, and The
New York Times recently reported that 5.5 per cent of outstanding
credit card debt had been written off by card issuers as losses.
Indications are that the credit card problem in Britain is considerably
worse.

Many of the arrangements and institutions that got
Americans through the 1970s are gone. It is not often remembered how
socialistic the US was in those days. It was a disguised socialism,
administered by huge corporations, but it was socialism. The flabbiness
and misrule of American companies was a kind of insulation. No one
mentions it now, not even in the heat of an election campaign.
Republicans fear telling voters that things of value have indeed been
stripped from them in recent decades, just as Democrats warned.
Democrats fear telling voters that heavy-handed socialism is indeed
their ideal, just as Republicans warned.

Is offering a Federal extension of unemployment past thirteen weeks "heavy-handed socialism?"

And Now for Something Completely Nonpolitical…

From a fascinating book to come out in January 2009 by Roger Deakin, called Wildwood: A Journey Through Trees:

Two days into my first camp, on 26 April 1959, we heard the first cuckoo and entered it into the Tomes [his diaries]. Under the strong influence of Robert Frost, I was moved to write a beginner's poem about it, later published in the school magazine, a lament for the ousted fledglings. "Who'll never fidget, squeak or yawn/beneath the breast that is your pawn." I remember feeling whining poetry was somehow subversive of the objective, scientific approach [his naturalist friend] Goater encouraged us to adopt. Yet him himself was always so full of enthusiasm and passion for nature he could never hide his own strong emotional attachment in Beaulieu Road and its natural history. Later more of my Beaulieu scribblings appeared in the magazine, a Wordsworthian effort occasioned by my first encounter with a marsh gentian…not one of us was immune to the poetry of the place. One boy, Greystoke, who had only ever stayed in luxury hotels before, took to camping with all the zeal of the new convert and never missed an opportunity to rediscover his inner backwoodsman at Beaulieu. It was only much later that I realized the whole point about Beaulieu was that in teaching me to make connections, it was revealing the intimate kinship of ecology and poetry.

[pic of the Beaulieu Woods in the UK from skink74 via Flickr]

Beaulieuwoods

Could Bandwagon Effect Be Driving Obama’s Rise in the Polls?

Anyone with the slightest interest in the subject of polls this year has heard about The Bradley Effect, in which polls supposedly under-represented racist voters, so that black candidates were likely to fare more poorly than the polls indicated. My favorite statistical analyst, Nate Silver, argues cogently (here) that this effect did exist in particular circumstances in the past, but is misunderstood. He calls it "a persistent myth." He points out that Obama has actually outperformed his polling this year, for one.

But here's another factor that seemingly has been under-reported, perhaps because it's even harder to assess numerically. Anyone who has ever worked as a vendor knows intuitively about The Bandwagon Effect. It's simply, really. People are influenced by other people. If they see other people flocking to buy something, they will take a look themselves.

This is why baristas salt the tip jar with their own money. It's why movie studios use any possible excuse to trumpet "#1 Movie in America!" ads, no matter how little that phrase means numerically.

Social scientists say this effect holds true with polling too. A l994 study by two sociologists at the University of Kentucky found a statistically significant correlation:

Independents, which are those who do not vote based on the endorsement
of any party and are ultimately neutral, were influenced strongly in
favor of the person expected to win (Goidel and Shields 807-808).
Expectations played a significant role throughout the study. It was
found that independents are twice as likely to vote for the Republican
candidate when the Republican is expected to win. From the results, it
was also found that when the Democrat was expected to win, independent
Republicans and weak Republicans were more likely to vote for the
Democratic candidate (Goidel and Shields 808).

This study, which sadly appears not to be available on-line, can't be quickly boiled down to a quick percentage, especially since a well-designed poll should pick it up as election day approaches.

But one has to wonder: Could this be fueling Obama's recent rise in the Gallup poll? Or is it just statistical noise?

It's probably impossible to know, but hardened lefty Marc Cooper reports from Las Vegas, where the betting on numbers is serious business, that to put a (illicit) bet down on Obama, one has to bet a $1000 to win $100…and it's considered a slam-dunk win. One expert told Cooper that betting on anyone but Obama to win was considered "an absurd wager."

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Will the Right Ever Get Tired of Blaming the Media?

From Eleanor Clift's article on "Wal-Mart Women" in Newsweek, in which she explains why under-$60,000 a year women will not (contrary to McCain's pollster) save his flailing campaign (see here).

What's shaping up is not comparable to '92, the last time a Democrat
won the White House. "It's much more serious and devastating to
Republicans," says Stan Greenberg, who was Bill Clinton's pollster.
Democrats lost seats in '92; Clinton had no coattails. Obama may enter
the White House with close to a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate
and a doubling of the Democratic margin in the House. This is a
watershed election. Typically, every four years, somebody wins,
somebody loses, and life goes on. But Obama represents generational
change that has huge political repercussions. He wins 63 percent of
voters between the ages of 18 and 29. For the Republicans, "It's not
just a lost election, it's a lost generation," says Greenberg.

Who
will they blame for this turn of events? "Overwhelmingly, it's you
guys," Greenburg told reporters at a Washington breakfast last week.
Republicans are convinced that media bias in favor of Obama tipped the
election in his favor, and that coverage of Sarah Palin has been
unfairly harsh, conveying sexism as well as anti-conservative bias
.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, always a GOP crowd pleaser, calls
the mainstream media "Pravda." Blaming the press may feel good. But it
won't solve the problem of a party that has lost its way.

Blame the media or blame themselves. Is it really any wonder they blame the media?

Barack Obama: A President Who Can Understand

In his recent appearance in Florida with Obama, Bill Clinton explains why he thinks Obama will be a good President, as only he can:

You know our current President said something that's really true.
The President is the decider-in-chief. And in this election you've got
a very unusual thing I've never seen happen before. You got to watch
the candidates make, not one, but two presidential decisions. You
always get one; who they pick as Vice President. He hit that one out of
the park, folks, that was a good decision.

OK, then you got to see the reaction to the financial crisis in
America nearly coming off the wheels. Having the wheels nearly run off.
I saw this up close. You know what he did? First he took a little heat
for not saying much.

I knew what he was doing. He talked to his advisers, he talked to my
economic advisers. He called Hillary. He called me. He called Warren
Buffett and he called Paul Volcker. He called all those people and you
know why, because he knew it was complicated and before he said
anything he wanted to understand.

Folks, if we have not learned anything, we have learned that we need
a president who wants to understand and who can understand. Who can
understand; yes, he can.

Now, wait a minute.

The second thing and this meant more to me than anything else and I
haven't cleared this with him. And he may even be mad at me for saying
this so closest to the election but I know what else he said to his
economic advisers. He said tell me what the right thing to do is.
What's the right thing for America, and don't tell me what's popular.
You tell me what's right and I'll figure out how to sell it. That's
what a president does in a crisis, what is right for America. And you
know after this election there are going to be a lot of rough times
ahead and you know it as well as I do. You have got to have a president
who can understand and then has the fortitude to stand up and tell you,
you hired me to win for America. I've got to make this decision now.
This is the very best I can do. And I'm prepared to be held accountable.

I'm going to tell you something the way he handled this crisis and
the way you saw him talk about it in the second and third debate showed
that he will be a very, very fine decision maker working for the
American people.

[pic from WonderfulTime on Flickr]

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The One-Stop Guide to Republican Politics

An anecdote from the campaign trail:

A Republican financial expert recalls attending a dinner with McCain
for the purpose of discussing with him domestic and international
financial complexities that clearly did not fascinate the senator. As
the dinner ended, McCain's question for his briefer was: "So, who is
the villain?"

from George Will's column today (here).

Alaska Politicians: Still Not Ready for Prime Time

From Don Young, Alaska's notorious anti-environmentalist, also facing corruption charges, a strangely guilt-ridden defense (via Roll Call) of his pal Ted Stevens after his conviction on seven counts:

“I can remember Richard Nixon, you know, his years of service, what
he’s done, and everybody [was] ridiculing him, and he ended up being
the greatest president in the history of our century. … The Senator
will be re-elected. He will appeal it. When he does go, he will win it
because there’s no way this is a jury of his peers.”

So Young told the Anchorage Daily News.

Amazing. If Richard Nixon was the greatest president in American history because he had to resign in disgrace, does that make Ted Stevens the greatest American senator, because he was convicted of taking kickbacks?

Just wondering.

Mr. October

Many have noted Barack Obama's cool, no-drama campaign style, but few have noticed how he resembles a professional athlete in his demeanor.

"I can get to the rim on anyone," he has reportedly said, a basketball phrase with a precise meaning. He doesn't claim to be the best; simply that he can score on anyone — repeatedly.

He doesn't get too "up" when his stats look good; he doesn't get too "down" on himself or his people and and panic when things aren't going well. He's level-headed, cool under pressure, like a great slugger.

Mr. October, courtesy of Steve Brodner and The New Yorker (here).

Mr. October Fin

Why the GOP has Lost the Elites: Michael Barone

Well-known political analyst Michael Barone looks closely at Pennsylvania, concludes Obama will win, and explains why McCain thinks he has a chance.

More importantly, he explains (here) why centrist voters  around the country have turned against the Republicans.

McCain is running even with or better than Bush in most of
Pennsylvania but is running far behind in metro Philly. My sense is
that the McCain campaign just can't believe this is true. Metro Philly,
after all, in 1988 split evenly between George H. W. Bush and Michael
Dukakis; the four suburban counties' Republican margins matched the
Democratic margins in the city of Philadelphia (conveniently
coterminous with Philadelphia County). As I've noted over the years,
affluent suburban territory like the Philly suburbs trended Democratic
in the 1990s on cultural issues and stayed there up through 2004.
(Ethnic change played a minor role. There are more blacks in the
suburban counties than in 1988, but metro Philadelphia has not had huge
population change in the last 20 years.) Now, if SurveyUSA is to be
trusted, the Philly suburbs are about to give Obama a significantly
larger percentage than the 53 percent John Kerry won there in 2004.

Why? My hypothesis is that that is because places like the Philly
suburbs are places where the recent decline in household wealth has
been most conspicuous. Housing prices mean a lot more to you when your
house started off at $400,000 and declined to $290,000 than they did
when you started off (as may be typical of Scranton or a blue-collar
town in metro Pittsburgh) at $140,000 and declined to $110,000.
Newspaper coverage of our current economic distress focuses on the very
poor (like a recent Washington Post story on North Carolina,
which focused on an ex-convict in a cheap motel in Charlotte), but the
people who are getting hurt most visibly in their lifelong project of
accumulating wealth are the more affluent. They're the ones whose house
values have most visibly and spectacularly declined, and whose 401(k)
accounts and stock portfolios have tanked in the last few months as
well. Folks in Scranton or in the cheap motel in Charlotte didn't
expect to live comfortably ever after off their increased house values,
401(k)'s, and Merrill Lynch accounts; a $700 monthly check from Social
Security is about what they have long expected and that's not in danger
(yet). Folks in the Philly suburbs did expect to live comfortably off
such assets.

I noted long ago in the introduction to my 1994 Almanac of American Politics that
George H. W. Bush's percentages declined between 1988 and 1992 by the
greatest amount in southern California and New Hampshire—places that
had "a spectacular collapse of residential real estate values" between
those two years.
You couldn't go to New Hampshire in the run-up to the
1992 presidential primary without hearing people tell you how the house
that used to be worth $350,000 was worth only $210,000 now. I concluded
that the economic factor most important in voting behavior was
switching from short-term income to long-term wealth. These
Pennsylvania numbers tell me that I was on the right track but that the
explanation is a little more complex. High-income, high-education
voters in the suburbs of big metro areas, my hypothesis goes, are
preoccupied with long-term wealth accumulation—and react sharply
against the Republican Party when their wealth is suddenly sharply
diminished when there is a Republican president. Modest-income,
modest-education voters in less affluent surroundings, it seems judging
from McCain's relatively good showing in Pennsylvania outside the
heavily populated southeast, react much less sharply, because they have
never expected to accumulate all that much in the way of wealth anyhow
,
consider themselves reasonably well protected by the existing safety
net and feel free to vote (as more affluent Philly suburbanites have
done in better times) on the basis of their opinions (conservative in
their case) on cultural issues. The affluent are less afraid of the tax
increases that Obama promises them than they are shocked by the
negative effect on their wealth from the collapse of the housing bubble
and the sharp decline in stock prices.

This argument makes a lot of sense. Barone goes on to argue that Obama will, like John Lindsay in New York, fail as a politician because he won't recreate the wealth under his administration that these voters lost under Bush.

This isn't convincing. Voters today I'm sure just want to see things getting better; they're not expecting miracles, like an overnight recovery. Obama warned Ohio today that it wouldn't be quick and it wouldn't be easy and the irony is, probably that's exactly what they wanted to hear. 

[photo by David Planchet]

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