Understanding Drought: Lesson One

From a useful op-ed in today’s Los Angeles Times:

In January, it rained a lot in Southern California. The usual street
intersections flooded. Water tumbled down the Los Angeles River. And
houses in areas ravaged by fires last fall seemed in danger of sliding
off their hilltop perches.

It
was chaotic, as always — but desperately needed. The wet weather came
after the driest year on record in the L.A. Basin — less than 3.5
inches of rain. Coupled with below-average rainfall in 2006, lack of
rain in 2007 had fed fears of a drought. Do last month’s downpours mean
we can stop worrying now?

There is no simple, single
definition of drought. In any region, there are periods of below-normal
precipitation. These dry periods become a drought when demand for water
exceeds supply. In this sense, we may be in a permanent drought
throughout the Western United States.

Was chatting with a scientist friend about this topic a couple of months ago. Though not a hydrologist, he was sure there was a good scientific definition of drought. And he’s right: there are several scientific measures of drought, which NOAA blends (like scotch) in various drought index formulations.

But the fact remains: because drought is in part a measure of demand, as well as supply, it’s surprisingly difficult to say when in a thirsty region like Southern California when a drought begins…or ends.

Wall Street Journal to Bush: You’re a Joke

Not an exaggeration. Believe it or don’t. Here’s their headline atop a story about Bush’s speech to the meat-eating right-wingers at the Conservative Policitial Action Conference yesterday:

PEACE, PROSPERITY AT STAKE IN PRESIDENTIAL VOTE, BUSH SAYS

But of course, we as a nation are at war, and, most people and economists agree, headed into a recession.

What can you say to this lunacy, this stupidity, this blind refusal to face facts on the part of the Prez? Beats me. Vote Democratic, I guess. Repeatedly.

GROWING UP NAKED: Rain Perry Relives Her Hippie Childhood, in Song and on Stage

Here’s a story I wrote about two good friends, on the cover of this week’s Ventura County Reporter:

Growing up in the l960’s, Rain Perry had the kind of childhood your grandparents warn you against. As a young child, she had to depend on a hippie dad with not enough money and too many girlfriends. She shared houses with roommates with names such as “Superman” and “Bear,” wore hand-me-down clothes from other poor kids, ate rennet-less jack cheese sandwiches for lunch, and was told never to smoke pot – except with her dad.

Was it a tragic experience?

Not really: Perry survived, as children usually do survive the excesses of their parents, and along the way grew up to be an award-winning singer/songwriter, becoming the sort of semi-famous artist her late father always wanted to be.

Now with characteristic good humor she is opening a theater show about her upbringing, having some fun with her hippie past, but also giving audiences a chance to hear in song (and see in photographs) exactly what it felt like — the joy and heartache of growing up a “wild child.” 

A new song by that name tells the story of her youth in foggy West Marin County, to the north of San Francisco. Now the area is known for B&Bs and well-off tourists, but at the time Inverness was an obscure little town with big farmhouses that could be rented cheaply – ideal for hippies living communally. Perry sings:

Played tag on the ridge by moonlight
Just because it was a lovely night…
Everyone in a circle
We had so much time!

I don’t think Rain will mind if I give you a taste of her upcoming album, a good one:

Download 02_cinderblock_bookshelves.mp3

And an extra added attraction: picture by noted rock photographer Guy Webster:

Rainperrybyguywebster

The songs she wrote for the show will be part of a new album, her third, but as she began writing the songs after her father died of cancer in l999, she found she had too much good material to fit into twelve songs. 

“I was working with a musical career consultant named Kari Estrin,” Perry said. “She told me to write everything out in prose, and figure out later what would work in songs and what wouldn’t. I came up with what I thought was a lot of really great material. I knew that it was bigger than an album, but I didn’t know what to do with it until I took a class with Kim.”

Kim Maxwell, a fast-talking and animated actress who co-founded Theatre 150 in Ojai with her ex-husband Dwier Brown, specializes in helping students find their voice on stage. When Perry took Maxwell’s acting/writing class, she found it liberating, both as a performer on stage, and as a writer. It especially benefitted Perry’s sense of humor, which isn’t always easy to fit into songs, but gets plenty of exposure in the show.

The humor also comes out as she rehearses the show with Maxwell, who has gone on to become the director of Perry’s show (called “Cinderblock Bookshelves,” which is also the name of the soon-to-be-released album).

While going over a scene from her teenage years, Perry reveals that when she moved from California to Colorado as a teenager, she found herself going from a hippie world where “everyone was naked – often!” and women didn’t shave at all to a conservative town where the girls shaved not just their legs, but their arms as well.

“Oh my God! They did not!” cries Maxwell in mock horror. A little later, as she works on the movements on stage with Perry, she decides that Perry should return to a central chair on stage, to make a central turn in the narrative clear.

“Run back to the chair!” she tells Perry. “”Run back to the chair and wait for the arrival of your sexuality!”

Perry smiles with wry appreciation. Looking back at her childhood, Perry sees both good and bad, but one of the worst parts of it was what she called the “too much information aspect.” Because her mother died when she was a young child, she grew up sharing everything with her dad, and ended up learning far more than she really wanted to about his personal problems.

“In talking to my childhood friends now, I think we agree that there was an epidemic at that time of parents oversharing with kids who really weren’t old enough to understand adult issues,” she said when interviewed after the rehearsal. “I’m trying not to do that with my kids.”

Perry stresses that she thinks the counterculture brought a lot of good to American culture, much of which she thinks we now take for granted. She cites patients’ rights, the questioning of authority, natural childbirth,  the peace movement, and yoga. On a personal level, she is deeply grateful to her father for believing that she had something worth saying, and worth writing down.

“My dad taught me to value my expression. A lot of kids aren’t raised to value that at all, and it becomes a huge struggle for them as they grow older.”

After her father died, as the only survivor she inherited his papers, and spent months reading through his letters, screenplays, and diaries. (She didn’t worry about prying into his private life, knowing that he always wanted to make an “autobiographical epic” movie of his life at some point.) Reading letters from his stern Midwestern father, who wanted him to go to a prep school back East, who couldn’t understand why he named his daughter Rain instead of Lorraine, and who never approved of his interest in drama, Perry gained a new appreciation of why her father had rejected his in-laws.  But she also knows from personal experience how difficult it was for her as a kid, which she describes poignantly in a couple of lines in the title song: “On the highway together, my daddy and me/From “where we can live freely” to “where we can stay for free.”

She has been working on the show for the last three years, taking it through two versions, but neither she nor Maxwell was entirely happy with the past performances. Before planning a big premiere at the new and much-larger version of Theatre 150 in downtown Ojai, they gave the play to veteran English screenwriter Peter Bellwood for editing.

Bellwood, who learned a great deal performing on stage with famous friends such as Peter Cook and the late Dudley Moore, made some crucial changes. First, he cut the show, to maintain its momentum, which also allowed Perry to sing her songs from start to finish (previously she had only begun many of the songs, fading them out part-way, which was frustrating to audiences, given her songwriting ability). He he also asked Rain to play her story “completely straight, without any kowtowing to the audience.”

“Too much self-deprecation makes audiences nervous,” he said. “As the chairman of her supporters’ club, I don’t want Rain to say or do anything that suggests she should be given a free ride. I’m so impressed with Rain; I want her to get in the audience’s face while telling her story, to just do it without any apology.”

This she now does. At one point, she plays a brave young  teacher, trying to teach sex education to a rowdy assembly of middle-school kids, answering questions written under anonymity and passed up to the front of the class.  Naturally, the mostly-immature kids ask the rudest questions they can think of, forcing the teacher to pretend to be far more comfortable with the subject than anyone facing a crowd of middle-school kids could possibly be.  Perry plays the teacher’s mortification directly – it’s hilarious.

From Perry’s perspective, the irony is that although when she graduated from Nordhoff High School everyone expected her to become some kind of free spirit, she was only able to become an artist after she became a soccer mom first.

“When I graduated from high school, I knew I wanted to be an artist, but I had no idea what I was doing,” she said. “It wasn’t until I settled down that I was able to figure out how to do it.”
Maxwell, who admits that her life has become “disheveled” in the aftermath of her recent divorce, admires Perry’s ability to focus, and even has taken lessons from her in stability, such as how to use Quicken and control her finances.

“I grew up in a completely different town, with parents who could hardly have been more different than hers, but I see the exact same struggles in her family as I had in mine,” Maxwell said. “All parents want it to be perfect for their kids. That was Rain’s father’s intention, and that was my parents’ intention,  and none of them could do it. “

Maxwell tears up a little, thinking about her own struggles as a parent, and reveals that since she started working on the show, she has been spending more time trying to make sure her kids are her first priority.
From Perry’s perspective, these kind of worries are inevitable – but as a kid who survived a good deal of neglect, she has a philosophical outlook on the question.

“I think kids understand a lot more than parents think they do,” she said. “They just “ozmose” it. Not telling them everything doesn’t mean that you’re lying, and that’s okay.”

Cinderblock Bookshelves: A Guide for Children of Fame-Obsessed Bohemian Nomads opens tomorrow, January 8th, at Theatre 150 in Ojai, and will play this weekend and next weekend. Call 646-4300 for more information.

Democratic Tide: Still Coming In

So says veteran political analyst Morton Kondracke:

After Super Tuesday, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) has every right to
declare himself the Republican presidential frontrunner, but he has
miles to go in getting himself and his party in shape to face his
Democratic opponent.

One measure of his task is that more than 14.6 million Democrats
went to the polls on Tuesday and only 9 million Republicans —
indicating a vast enthusiasm gap between the parties.

McCain polls reasonably well against both Sens. Hillary Rodham
Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Barack Obama (D-Ill.), but they have a sagging
economy and a massive national desire for change going for them in
addition to the energetic desire among Democrats to get the White House
back.

The Democrats out-polled the Republicans by 5.6 million? Yes. In fact, the entire Republican field put together barely outpolled Hillary by half a million.

Still, another veteran Washingon pol — David Broder — thinks McCain will be very competitive in the fall.

Based on the numbers of actual voters, I don’t see it. Despite the polls. And Broder, like a lot of pundits, is immune to the economic downturn that is taking hold. So he underestimates the revulsion of the populace with uncaring Republican pols, I think. This is looking like l992 all over again, although I hope this time we avoid putting Clinton into the White House. But if it happens, we know who to blame…

Canvassing for Obama

Sorry to be out of commission: had connectivity issues this weekend. Anyhow!

Here’s my highly scientific report about canvassing one of my neighborhoods for Barack. Was instructed by m precinct captain to simply talk to people, try to find out who was voting for Obama, and make sure they made it to the polls on Tuesday.

Talked to a long street full of people. Pretty evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, with one self-identified Independent. The Independent said he remembered Vietnam and was opposed to Obama because Obama wanted to end the war. He said Iraq was like Vietnam and "we have to finish it."

Okay then.

Three Republican households did not want to talk to me, but one Republican told me she was voting for Obama, because she and her husband didn’t like any of the GOP candidates. Two Democrats said they would vote for Obama and, shocking me, also said they would not vote for Hillary in November if she was nominated. And two Democratic households said they were leaning towards Obama, but hadn’t yet made up their minds.

From this highly scientific poll, Obama will sweep California, and swamp Republican voters. Yay!

Here’s a picture of Barack taken at a rally at Santa Barbara City College, this past fall. I’m proud to say I’ve actually shaken the hand of the man I think will be the next President of these United States…

Barack

Coolest Track of 2007

Comes from a mysterious Londoner who goes under the name Burial. He released this song, called "Untrue," on a record of the same name last November. It won best album of the year according to the Metacritic consensus, but this Burial guy still will not perform, will not reveal his name, and will not be interviewed except anonymously. How cool is that? Jeez.

I used to think I didn’t like electronica, but Thievery Corporation (which had a great song a couple of years ago, called "Amerimacka," with the haunting line "Amerimacka…oh what a beautiful lie") began to change my mind.

This anonodude changed it for good, with "Untrue."

The haunting line from this one "…and it’s all because…you lied…"

What do you I suppose he’s talking about, folks?

I think I know…

http://achangeinthewind.typepad.com/achangeinthewind/files/08_untrue.mp3

The Democratic Tide Keeps Coming In — Even in Florida

As DHinMN notes for KOS:

First, let’s begin with actual results.  With 95% of the vote reported,
the current tallies show a total of 1,655,220 Democratic votes and
1,872,684 Republican votes.  Every Republican fought as hard as he
could for the win in Florida.  The Democrats—since the DNC won’t seat
Florida’s delegates because they flouted the schedule—didn’t really
compete in the state, with only Hillary Clinton making any campaign
appearances, and none of our folks spending any significant money.  Yet
with this possibly the make-or-break contest for the Republicans and a
probably meaningless "contest" for the Democrats, 47% of the people who
cast ballots in Florida voted for a Democrat.  Hillary Clinton received
over a 100,000 more votes than John McCain, Barack Obama got almost as
many votes as Mitt Romney, and John Edwards wasn’t far behind Rudy
Giuliani and Mike Huckabee.

Will Climate Change Threaten the Redwoods?

No one knows. Some climate modeling suggests it might, especially if the California Current System is affected, which is certainly possible, and has been speculated about quite a lot. In the New York Times yesterday, Healy Hamilton of the California Academy of Sciences was quoted on the subject:

Dr. Hamilton said that on the Northern California coast, fog has an
influence on natural systems. But “none of our climate models can tell
us what is going to happen with fog,” she said. “So we are facing
profound uncertainties about how our coastal ecosystems are going to
look.”

Not mentioned in the article was the simple fact that many redwood trees are not in preserves, but in close proximity to various outposts of civilization, such as Mill Valley and Mendecino. The coastal redwoods depend on their ability to comb water out of fog in the summer, but if the fog was to dissipate, I would expect heroic efforts from Northern Californians to replace that water. Would it succeed? Not everywhere, but I guarantee the NorCal folks wouldn’t give up easily…though it would be difficult to duplicate the ecosystem that has grown up around this fallen tree, from Wadebriston‘s photostream.

Fallenredwood