Could SoCal become unliveable due to climate change?

From the Fourth National Climate Assessment, released (for some reason) on the day after Thanksgiving by the Trump administration. Folks, I’ve just started reading the Southwest section, but I must say, for SoCal and other hot places in California, in particular, this looks like very bad news. Under the higher scenario (RCP8.5), climate models project an 8.6°FContinue reading “Could SoCal become unliveable due to climate change?”

CA water bureaucrat disses federal weather scientists

How often does one see an outright confrontation between state bureaucrats and federal scientists? In my experience, well — never. But that's what I saw last week at the Chapman Conference on California Drought.  Organized by the American Geophysical Union, at a National Academy of Sciences center at UC Irvine, this conference brought together aContinue reading “CA water bureaucrat disses federal weather scientists”

NOAA: Arctic Warming = cold winters for Eastern US

Today the National Atmospheric and Oceanographic Administration released the Arctic Report Card for 2014. The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, but the first consequence of that warming, according to our national experts, is very very cold winters for the eastern United States.  To quote:  The warming Arctic atmosphereContinue reading “NOAA: Arctic Warming = cold winters for Eastern US”

Climate study surprise: warming to bring more rain to CA

A major study published today, based on 160 climate models compiled by researchers at NOAA, including a leading voice in climate modeling, Martin Hoerling, and Richard Seager, both of whom who have spent years projecting the impact of climate change on the West, concludes that California's epic three-year drought was not — repeat not — caused byContinue reading “Climate study surprise: warming to bring more rain to CA”

NASA vs. NOAA: battle of the winter forecast charts

The headline exaggerates, of course, but doesn't in fact mislead. Here's a graph of a NASA climate model, depicting a forecast of precipitation in the U.S. for the next winter. Colors tell the story.  In truth, it's a little hard to decode the anomalies chart, but this turns out to be just one of eightContinue reading “NASA vs. NOAA: battle of the winter forecast charts”

El Niño 2014 October forecast: Glass little over half full

NOAA released its October outlook for our winter, based on ocean temperatures, and continues to find a 60-65% chance of the appearance of the boychick. Here's my fave set of graphs today, from another site, and here's my fave single graph: These are tempeartures taken across a section of the equatorial Pacific, the vast belt acrossContinue reading “El Niño 2014 October forecast: Glass little over half full”

66% chance of an El Niño — a big one — in 2014: NOAA

Scientists now are closely watching the Pacific and will know with more certainty in two or three months what the winter should bring. For now, all the trend lines are showing a greater likelihood of a wet winter than a dry one, particularly with the massive Kelvin wave still moving.

“Don’t hyperventilate yet,” Patzert said. “It’s a little too early to say the drought will be over, but this Kelvin wave is no dud. This is a stud.”

Cyclone Phailin may be strongest storm ever to hit India

Eric Holthaus tweets an eye-opener: Cyclone Phailin is set to become the strongest India has ever seen — Quartz (@qz) October 11, 2013 // He tells the story with intense power, beginning (interestingly) with the NOAA image.  Yet it's possible he buries the lede, as at the end of the story he casuallyContinue reading “Cyclone Phailin may be strongest storm ever to hit India”

Scientific language for non-scientists: climate change x10

Deborah Byrd, founder of the great EarthSky network, has always had an ear for the language as well as an eye on the sky, and writes this week of two climate change studies, both of which found that the change was happening ten times faster than in the past…in fact, faster than in the pastContinue reading “Scientific language for non-scientists: climate change x10”