Krugman runs the numbers and concludes:
Right now, GDP is flat (falling in the monthly estimates); Bush has a
negative net approval of 30 percent or more; and people are tired of
Republicans. So it ought to be a smashing Democratic victory. When I
plug current numbers into the Abramowitz model (making a guess about
1st-half GDP and assuming that Bush approval in June will be about
where it is today), it says 57-43 Democrats.
And although general election polls this early aren’t meaningful historically, they too point to a Dem victory. To GOP pollster Frank Luntz, the landscape looks grim:
"It used to be that Republicans
won [in polls] on economic and values and foreign policy issues," he
says. "Democrats won on quality of life. Now Democrats are winning on
Luntz is quoted in a piece called Gloomy Republicans in the The Weekly Standard by its editor Fred Barnes, Bush’s adoring biographer. He reports that Republican goals for 2008 are "modest:
There are three major
goals: Hold the White House, avert sweeping House losses, and keep the
Senate defeats to four or fewer.
Basically, avoid a landslide. But the latest poll numbers from a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll look alarming: In fact, the graph for McCain vs. Obama looks downright landslidey…yet the pundits (and the electoral college) say the race will be close. Should be innaresting…