El Nino or El No-Show?

In the discussion of this results from April according to a climate society, it is said that the two are in general agreement….yet to an outside observer, it seems to me that the dynamical models lean much more towards El Nino than the statisical. Am I wrong?

Aye, that is the question, as phrased by the inimitable Bill Patzert, forecaster extraordinaire:

Bill Patzert calls it the “great wet hope.”

“You say ‘El Niño’ and everyone’s eyes light up,” said Patzert, a
climatologist at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.

So when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently
said El Niño conditions were returning, some started dreaming of a
season flush with water that could drag Southern California out of its
drought.

But don’t bust out any celebratory umbrellas just yet, Patzert warned.

“In the last decade, we have had a lot of false starts on El Niño
and at this point, it looks like déjà vu all over again,” he said. “The
smart money is on another dry winter.”

Patzert is once again gently but unmistakably declaring his independence from the official forecast, which goes something like this…

NOAA scientists today announced the arrival of El Niño, a climate
phenomenon with a significant influence on global weather, ocean
conditions and marine fisheries. El Niño, the periodic warming of
central and eastern tropical Pacific waters, occurs on average every
two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.

Sea Surface Temperatures the week of July 2009.

Sea
surface temperatures along the equatorial Eastern Pacific, as of July
1, are at least one degree above average — a sign of El Niño.

NOAA expects this El Niño
to continue developing during the next several months, with further
strengthening possible. The event is expected to last through winter
2009-10.

“Advanced climate science allows us to alert
industries, governments and emergency managers about the weather
conditions El Niño may bring so these can be factored into
decision-making and ultimately protect life, property and the economy,”
said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and
atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

Patzert has a history of rejecting the consensus and being proven right, so when he says this year El Niño will be "El No-Show," we have good reason to listen.  

But here's what puzzles me about this question. Look at the suite of model forecasts for El Niño this year.

Here's a suite of dynamical models:

Dynamical

Here's a suite of statistical models:

Statistical

In the discussion of these results from April according to a climate society, it is said that the two are in general agreement….yet to an outside observer, it seems to me that the dynamical models lean much more towards El Nino than the statisical. Am I wrong?

And am I right in thinking that this reflects observation vs. experience?

Should we not place as much weight on past experience as on our measurements of what we think causes this phenomenon?

Or am I missing something obvious?

Just wondering.

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