For California, the Department of Water Resources releases an "experimental" long-term forecast, based on ocean indices. Lead forecaster Dr. Klaus Wolter of NOAA predicts — as he did last year — dryness, but opens the door to the possibility of an El Nino developing in spring. The forecast's three central predictions for the 2014 waterContinue reading “SoCal 2014 water year forecast: Dryness, but…”
In the discussion of this results from April according to a climate society, it is said that the two are in general agreement….yet to an outside observer, it seems to me that the dynamical models lean much more towards El Nino than the statisical. Am I wrong?