NASA vs. NOAA: battle of the winter forecast charts

The headline exaggerates, of course, but doesn't in fact mislead. Here's a graph of a NASA climate model, depicting a forecast of precipitation in the U.S. for the next winter. Colors tell the story. 

NASA_ensemble_prate_us_season2

In truth, it's a little hard to decode the anomalies chart, but this turns out to be just one of eight climate models forecasts. The trouble is that seven of those eight, as Eric Holthaus mentioned this morning on Twitter, depict little or no rain for the winter three months in California. 

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Troubling. Am trying to reserach, verify, discuss for a story. But also striking is this contrast with the NOAA forecast. 

   Precipforecast

 

It's a bit different isn't it? At least for SoCal. Much better chance of rain. 

 

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