The headline exaggerates, of course, but doesn't in fact mislead. Here's a graph of a NASA climate model, depicting a forecast of precipitation in the U.S. for the next winter. Colors tell the story.
In truth, it's a little hard to decode the anomalies chart, but this turns out to be just one of eight climate models forecasts. The trouble is that seven of those eight, as Eric Holthaus mentioned this morning on Twitter, depict little or no rain for the winter three months in California.
California has about a 1-in-8 chance of a wet winter. Continued drought looks increasingly likely, per latest models: pic.twitter.com/z0t4huwNNt
— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) October 13, 2014
Troubling. Am trying to reserach, verify, discuss for a story. But also striking is this contrast with the NOAA forecast.
It's a bit different isn't it? At least for SoCal. Much better chance of rain.