66% chance of an El Niño — a big one — in 2014: NOAA

Scientists now are closely watching the Pacific and will know with more certainty in two or three months what the winter should bring. For now, all the trend lines are showing a greater likelihood of a wet winter than a dry one, particularly with the massive Kelvin wave still moving.

“Don’t hyperventilate yet,” Patzert said. “It’s a little too early to say the drought will be over, but this Kelvin wave is no dud. This is a stud.”

Everything you always wanted to know about drought*

Four of us from the Ojai Valley area, all concerned citizens from very different backgrounds, think that we need to talk frankly about the drought, and more, do what we can about it. Not just for ourselves, our properties, gardens, orchards, trees, lands, and wildlife, but also for our community.

El Nino sceptic repents as rain continues to fall

Bill Patzert and "The Los Angeles Times" are likethis, as the gossip columnists say, and deservedly so: the newspaper is by far the biggest in the West, and Patzert is the most interesting forecaster in our region, perhaps the country.  For one, he admits when he gets it wrong. How many other forecasters confess?  HeContinue reading “El Nino sceptic repents as rain continues to fall”

Some good rain…and a “blown forecast”

Ventura County is now at about 200% of normal rainfall for this time of year, twenty inches in our immediate area, which is wonderful, but, as Emily Green and others have pointed out, comes nowhere near the 1 to 1.5 inches of rain an hour predicted for Wednesday of last week.  In Green's post, forecasterContinue reading “Some good rain…and a “blown forecast””