Accuweather: Storm is “war on the Southwest”

Oh, c'mon. Now Accuweather is just getting silly:

The last and strongest in the train of Pacific storms will unleash a new round of flooding rain, mudslides,
feet of mountain snow, damaging winds and severe thunderstorms on California and the Southwest into Friday.

Is is an all out weather war being waged by the atmosphere on the
Southwest.

A rainstorm is "war?" Think the plants and the land and the streams and the fish will disagree…hell, I know they would. When do steelhead migrate into the backcountry? When the water is high, often during storms. This makes their life possible.

Jeez. Does this below look like "war" to you? Because it looks like some happy green plants to me.

RaininJanuary

Rainy weather in SoCal: Overfeared?

Is it just my imagination, or are people — including authorities like the National Weather Service — overly frightened of rain?

Take a look at the latest "storm warming," copied from the NWS via the Ventura County Star:

…PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT…
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS TO
THE MOUNTAINS EARLIER TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT…A COLD
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS…(yada yada yada).

In fact, warnings yesterday of an inch or more of rain an hour have turned out to be wildly overstated.

According to the Ventura County Watershed Protection District, our area has had a total of about four inches of rain in the last five days.

Which, folks, in the midst of a drought, is good news

(Yes, a few trees and rocks fell on various roads, a sinkhole opened at one spot in the county, some roads were closed, and surf crested the Ventura County Pier. But nobody was hurt, not even a homeless guy sleeping under the bridge by the Santa Clara River, against the advice of police.)

Now we are told by the authorities that "showers" are a "threat!"

And, apparently, "isolated thunderstorms" should make us hide under the bed.

It's good to be prepared, but this level of fear is ridiculous. Yes, occasionally it rains in SoCal, and sometimes it even floods. But in our current drought, those of us not living directly below badly burned slopes should welcome precipitation and even thunderstorms with delight.

Just as a reminder, here's what NOAA says the southwest looks like, as a percentage of normal precip, this water year. 

Westernprecip 

The drought is not over. We need every drop of rain we can get. The question is — can we use this rainfall wisely, or will we just rush it to the sea as usual?

Kate McGarrigle (talk to me of Mendocino)

Kate McGarrigle, of the McGarrigle sisters, writer and singer of many a great song, died yesterday of liver cancer. Linda Ronstadt, who recorded some of the sisters' songs (and had a monster hit with their "Heart Like a Wheel") had a very nice quote about them in the Los Angeles Times:

"They had a vibe when you went to see them," Ronstadt said. "You felt
privileged that you were invited into their living room — it wasn't
like they had gone on stage and they were performing. It was like you
were invited inside this secret world they shared together. It felt
like they were just continuing the conversation they'd started while
they were doing the breakfast dishes that morning."

That's exactly right. My wife and I were fortunate to see the two sisters and some of their friends and relations perform in Los Angeles about twenty years ago. The two had an almost unconscious relationship to the audience — as if they were performing as much for each other, as they always had. Fascinating.

And Kate's Talk to Me of Mendocino is surely one of the most beautiful pop songs ever written…

http://www.lala.com/external/flash/SingleSongWidget.swf

Funny-but-wise poem about Paris and dogs

You don't come across too many funny-but-wise poems in the world today, for whatever reason.

Sharp, cutting, intense, brilliant, shocking poems, sure, but funny?

Not so much.

So here — let's celebrate one such surprise winner, from Poetry Daily:

Disgust


There's a preponderance of dog shit in Paris
but no one says so, attracted to its other, finer qualities.
If people were stepping in that much crap in Detroit
you'd never hear the end of it. Motown my ass, they'd say,
without so much as a backward glance at the Miracles, the Temptations.
They might remember Ike & Tina since he beat the shit out of her,
but they'd be wrong. They were from Tennessee.
What you get for the price of Paris is a certain forgiveness,
a willingness to overlook the less scenic. I don't know why.
I told a French guy once that I loved how clean and green the Seine looked;
he laughed till he almost puked. Because I was wrong, of course,
but also because cleanliness wasn't his idea of a compliment.
So let's be Paris. I'll be blind to your porn habit
and you'll elide the edges of my idiot rage.
We'll be full of shit but marvelous anyway,
and the young will flock to us
as an eternal symbol of romance.

Elizabeth Scanlon

Ploughshares
Winter 2009-10

And here of course is that eternal symbol…in real life, living up to its reputation.

Loveinparis

Red sky at morning (on the coast, before today’s storm)

From the often-beautiful photoblog of Veronique du Turenne, taken early this morning along the coast:

Redskyatmorning

The supposedly "unrelenting" storms for SoCal this week, which were said to have the potential of as much as 15-20 inches of rain, have so far been quite moderate: two inches in our area today.

But tomorrow we have flash flood potential, with as much as an inch of rain an hour, according to the NWS, for hours at a stretch. Hmmmm.

The duty to nature (great enviro speech of l990)

Mr. Chairman, since the last World War, our world has faced many
challenges, none more vital than that of defending our liberty and
keeping the peace. But the threat to our world comes not only from tyrants…it can be more insidious though less visible. The danger
of global warming is as yet unseen, but real enough for us to make
changes and sacrifices, so that we do not live at the expense of future
generations.

Our ability to come together to stop or limit damage to the
world's environment will be perhaps the greatest test of how far we can
act as a world community. No-one should under-estimate the imagination
that will be required, nor the scientific effort, nor the unprecedented
co-operation we shall have to show. We shall need statesmanship of a
rare order. It's because we know that, that we are here today.

For two centuries, since the Age of the Enlightenment, we assumed
that whatever the advance of science, whatever the economic
development, whatever the increase in human numbers, the world would go
on much the same. That was progress. And that was what we wanted.

Now we know that this is no longer true.

We have become more and more aware of the growing imbalance
between our species and other species, between population and
resources, between humankind and the natural order of which we are
part.

In recent years, we have been playing with the conditions of
the life we know on the surface of our planet. We have cared too little
for our seas, our forests and our land. We have treated the air and the
oceans like a dustbin. We have come to realise that man's activities
and numbers threaten to upset the biological balance which we have
taken for granted and on which human life depends.

We must remember our duty to Nature before it is too late. That
duty is constant. It is never completed. It lives on as we breathe. It
endures as we eat and sleep, work and rest, as we are born and as we
pass away. The duty to Nature will remain long after our own endeavours
have brought peace to the Middle East. It will weigh on our shoulders
for as long as we wish to dwell on a living and thriving planet, and
hand it on to our children and theirs.[fo 1]

[cut]

I want to pay tribute to the important work which the United Nations
has done to advance our understanding of climate change, and in
particular the risks of global warming…The IPCC report is a remarkable achievement. It is almost as
difficult to get a large number of distinguished scientists to agree,
as it is to get agreement from a group of politicians. As a scientist
who became a politician, I am perhaps particularly qualified to make
that observation! I know both worlds.

[cut]

But the need for more research should not be an excuse for delaying
much needed action now. There is already a clear case for precautionary
action at an international level. The IPCC tells us that we can't
repair the effects of past behaviour on our atmosphere as quickly and
as easily as we might cleanse a stream or river. It will take, for
example, until the second half of the next century, until the old age
of my [ Michael Thatcher] grandson, to
repair the damage to the ozone layer above the Antarctic. And some of
the gases we are adding to the global heat trap will endure in the
Earth's atmosphere for just as long.

The IPCC tells us that, on present trends, the earth will warm
up faster than at any time since the last ice age. Weather patterns
could change so that what is now wet would become dry, and what is now
dry would become wet. Rising seas could threaten the livelihood of that
substantial part of the world's population which lives on or near
coasts. The character and behaviour of plants would change, some for
the better, some for worse. Some species of animals and plants would
migrate to different zones or disappear for ever. Forests would die or
move. And deserts would advance as green fields retreated.

Many of the precautionary actions that we need to take would be
sensible in any event. It is sensible to improve energy efficiency and
use energy prudently; it's sensible to develop alternative and
sustainable and sensible … it's sensible to improve energy efficiency
and to develop alternative and sustainable sources of supply; it's
sensible to replant the forests which we consume; it's sensible to
re-examine industrial processes; it's sensible to tackle the problem of
waste. I understand that the latest vogue is to call them ‘no regrets’
policies. Certainly we should have none in putting them into effect.

And our uncertainties about climate change are not all in one
direction. The IPCC report is very honest about the margins of error.
Climate change may be less than predicted. But equally it may occur
more quickly than the present computer models suggest. Should this
happen it would be doubly disastrous were we to shirk the challenge
now. I see the adoption of these policies as a sort of premium on
insurance against fire, flood or other disaster. It may be cheaper or
more cost-effective to take action now than to wait and find we have to
pay much more later.

[cut]

Targets on their own are not enough. They have to be achievable.
Promises are easy. Action is more difficult. For our part, we have
worked out a strategy which sets us on the road to achieving the
target. We propose ambitious programmes both to promote energy
efficiency and to encourage the use of cleaner fuels.

We now require, by law, that a substantial proportion of our
electricity comes from sources which emit little or no carbon dioxide,
and that includes a continuing important contribution from nuclear
energy.

Such measures as these—which increasing numbers of countries
are adopting—should be seen as part of the premium on that insurance
policy which I mentioned. They buy us protection against the hazards of
the future: but they also pay dividends even though the gloomier
predictions about global warming are not fulfilled—they pay dividends
such as less air pollution, lowered acid rain, and reduced energy costs.[fo 4]

Mr. Chairman, people may disagree about the effects of increased
man-made carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. But everyone agrees that we
should keep in healthy condition the forests and seas which absorb a
large part of it here on earth. We would be wise to do that for other
reasons too: for the beauty of the forests and the infinite variety of
species which inhabit them, and to preserve the food chain and the
balance of nature in the sea.

That's why we want to contribute to conserving the world's
forests, and to planting new ones. Trees help to reduce global warming.
We intend to plant more at home, and we have just announced our plans
to replant one of the ancient forests of England—destroyed in an
earlier phase of our history.

Margaret Thatcher, November 6, l990,

Margaret-thatcher

h/t: John Quiggin

The Pantheism of Avatar: Good? Bad? A Simple Truth?

The reviews for Avatar have been overwhelmingly good, except from conservatives such as columnist Ross Douthut, who complains bitterly that:

“Avatar” is Cameron’s long apologia for pantheism — a faith that
equates God with Nature, and calls humanity into religious communion
with the natural world…

If this narrative arc sounds familiar, that’s because pantheism has
been Hollywood’s religion of choice for a generation now. It’s the
truth that Kevin Costner discovered when he went dancing with wolves.
It’s the metaphysic woven through Disney cartoons like “The Lion King”
and “Pocahontas.” And it’s the dogma of George Lucas’s Jedi, whose
mystical Force “surrounds us, penetrates us, and binds the galaxy
together.”

Hollywood keeps returning to these themes because
millions of Americans respond favorably to them. From Deepak Chopra to
Eckhart Tolle, the “religion and inspiration” section in your local
bookstore is crowded with titles pushing a pantheistic message. A
recent Pew Forum report
on how Americans mix and match theology found that many self-professed
Christians hold beliefs about the “spiritual energy” of trees and
mountains that would fit right in among the indigo-tinted Na’Vi.

To Douthut, this is grim news, because after all, "if there's no God to take on flesh and come among us, as the Christmas story has it, it's a deeply tragic [story]."  

But a lot of environmentalists and scientists see no need to apologize for the home planet that brought us into being and consciousness, any more than we need to apologize for blue skies and starry nights. Jeez. This isn't enough — you expect consciousness and eternal life as well?

Grow up, Ross Douthut.

In the words of Oliver Sacks on Big Think:

[Albert] Einstein always used to say that the most beautiful thing
in the world is the mysterious. And I think that the fundamental sets
of mystery and awe and of the sublime is behind all science and art.
Basically, I think, science springs from a sense of nature’s
mysteriousness and the wonder of nature. And there is no need to invoke
anything supernatural. Indeed, I think too much involvement in the
supernatural may blind one to the wonder of nature. And I’m slightly
terrified by certain fundamentalist who say, let the planet go to hell,
the Final Coming is going to be soon. God will take care of it all.

I live, for myself, happily and completely within nature. I love it.
I have a sense of being at home. I don’t pine for anything else. And
so, I think, those parts of my temporal lobes are devoted to, as it
were, to an almost religious feeling for nature.

More on Avatar after I have a chance to see it again. This is the rare blockbuster that really does deserve to be seen more than once. This much I know: The idea of tsahaylu — neural connection — will surely become iconic, just as did E.T.'s bulbuous glowing finger.

Which is as it should be, for one of the biggest movies ever. After all, to connect is what storytellers are supposed to do. Until I can find a better image of that fusing of filaments, this one will have to do: 

Tsahaylu

A raindrop’s journey

The Los Angeles Times continues to be devastated by cutbacks, but nonetheless the book section under David Ulin continues to discover great works overlooked in the rush to the obvious bestsellers. 

Today, perfectly timed for our weather, comes word of a California poet, Don Thompson, who lives in Buttonwillow and writes so quietly that even many members of his family know little of his work.

Further, the review includes not only the above-mentioned look at his life, but a nice sample of his work: The land, put into words.  

Edward Thomas, Homer, Rain



Who knows how long it takes a raindrop
to make it home from the mud to the clouds.
Those charts in the textbooks with arrows
flowing clockwise, uninterrupted,
don't tell the whole story
anymore than dotted lines on a map
show us the travels of Odysseus.

This is the epic of rain:
not reincarnation, not purgatory,
but something like a thousand years
waiting in line at Disneyland
just to leap from a cloud
and free fall, bursting with joy
against stone or leaf.

Who's to say the rain on my window
didn't thin the blood of a poet
somewhere in France at Easter, 1917.
And who's to say one drop
didn't splash on Homer's tongue 
when he lifted his face,
tasting what he'd never see.

–Don Thompson, "Where We Live," 2009

A friend sent me this image of storms headed towards this state. Looks impressive. We hear warnings of flash floods. I know I should fret, but I've tried to prepare, and personally I can't wait for some real honest-to-God rain. So far, mostly mist and dripping and falling acorns. 

Stormimage

El Nino 2010: Small, medium, large…or wanna-be?

The infamous El Niño, bringer of warm winters and rain to Southern California, is back, NOAA says, and thanks to a surprisingly wet November, we're still ahead of normal in our total rainfall for this water year.

Wouldn't you like to know what that really means?

The truth is, no one knows. But for the latest in knowledgeable speculation, please see this week's cover story in the Reporter. Here's a snippet:

El Niño, the best-known and most powerful of all ocean climate
patterns, in its warm (positive) phase brings a flow of warm water from
the tropics along the equator toward the west coast, in what’s called a
Kelvin wave, about every five years, which feeds moisture to rain
patterns in our area. But the last El Niño episode, in 2003, brought
only slightly more rainfall than normal to our area, and has already
been forgotten, while the huge storms of 2005, which devastated the
state and killed 20 people, had little or no connection to El Niño.

ElNinorollover2anim_

Lindzen’s Holy Grail — a negative feedback — and Hansen’s translation

The first difficulty with climate science for the public — and this is true whether or not you believe that the climate is in trouble — is that it's so monstrously huge and long and difficult to understand.

The second difficulty is that most scientists themselves aren't very good at explaining the difficulties.

The third difficulty is that the public itself would rather think about Tiger's mistresses, or Sarah's latest outrageousness, or nearly anything but the possibility that civilization is genuinely endangered.

So let us now say a word for the plain-spoken James Hansen, the dean of climate scientists, and thank him when he clarifies climate issues, such as arguments raised his debating partner Richard Lindzen.

Lindzen has a new paper out that's getting very sharply criticized in the scientific journals (for more, see Andy Revkin's typically excellent coverage on Dot Earth). But although the criticism makes a great deal of sense, neither Lindzen's paper nor the rebuttal by Kevin Trenberth and three other scientists explains the underlying idea in a way likely to be understandable to most people.

Let me give you an example, from the opening to the 2009 paper ("On the determination of climate feedbacks from ERBE data") by Lindzen and Choi:

Climate feedbacks are estimated from fluctuations in the outgoing radiation budget form te latest version of Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) nonscanner data. It appears, for the entire tropics, the observed outgoing radiation fluxes increase with the increase in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The observed behavior of radiation fluxes implies negative feedback processes associated with relatively low climate sensitivity. 

Okay, it's a scientific paper. Allowances must be made for the precision expected in science, and for concepts scientists know and ordinary folks have never heard of. Still, contrast that with what James Hansen says about Richard Lindzen's work in his new book, Storms of My Grandchildren:

Lindzen is convinced that nature will finds ways to cool itself, that negative feedbacks will diminish the effect of climate forcings. This notion spurred Lindzen to propose a specific mechanism for how the atmosphere takes care of itself: He suggests that columns of tropical cumulus convection intensify if carbon dioxide increases, piping energy high into the atmosphere, where the heat would be radiated into space. This mechanism, he suggests, is nature's thermostat, which keeps gobal warming at a few tenths of a degree for doubled carbon dioxide, rather than a few degrees. [pp55]

In this paper, Lindzen is focusing on sea surface temperatures, not carbon dioxide, as a forcing. But he's still convinced the top of the atmosphere is an escape hatch for global heating, and as Trenberth et al point out in a free commentary available on Real Climate, this theory has some obvious flaws.

One error is that Lindzen and Choi assume that the heat generated by sunlight on water in the tropics will remain in the tropics, which is to say, they pretend that El Niño — the best-known and most potent of climate phenomena, which can transport heat from the tropics across vast distances — doesn't exist.

The arrogance of that assumption cannot be overstated. But it can be passed over without much comment, as in Trenberth et al's phrasing:

The main changes in tropical SST and radiative fluxes at TOA are
associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and are not
necessarily indicative of forced variability in a closed system. ENSO
events cause strong and robust exchanges of energy between the ocean
and atmosphere, and tropics and subtropics. Yet LC09 treat the tropical
atmosphere as a closed and deterministic system in which variations in
clouds are driven solely by SST. In fact, the system is known to be
considerably more complex and changes in the flow of energy arise from
ocean heat exchange through evaporation, latent heat release in
precipitation, and redistribution of that heat through atmospheric
winds. These changes can be an order of magnitude larger than
variability in TOA fluxes, and their effects are teleconnected
globally. It is therefore not possible to quantify the cloud feedback
with a purely local analysis.

That's just one of their deadly criticisms. They also argue that Lindzen and Choi made fundamental — and misleading — calculating errors, to get the results they want. For more, see their discussion on RealClimate. 

It's pretty shocking, but a lot easier to understand with Hansen's translation. More from him soon.