Phoenix: What Happens When a City Built on Growth Begins to Shrink?

At a session called Sustainability and Growth: How Can a City Develop Sustainably When its Identity is Built on Growth? this Monday morning at the American Meteorological Society convention a development expert named Grady Grammage colorfully dispelled some myths and revealed some little-known truths about Phoenix.

One myth: Phoenix is unsustainable because it imports water. Virtually all cities import water, Grammage pointed out, even New York, not to mention countless other necessities for urban life, such as food, fuel, and steel. Phoenix arguably has a more stable supply of water than numerous other cities, such as San Diego, because Phoenix imports its water from numerous sources, albeit at great distances. 

In Grammage's view, a bigger question is "habitability," and he brought up the Urban Heat Island Effect, which he thinks, based on surveys, will drive more Phoenicians out of the state by 2020 than move in from other states. Grammage reports that when he expressed this view, various public officials and "water buffaloes" — water experts — in Phoenix scoffed.They think Phoenix could support as many as ten million people, more than twice its current population.

But the climactic trends may have already been trumped by the economic trends. According to a huge and thoroughly-substantiated front page story by a team of reporters in Monday's Arizona Republic, Phoenix is already losing population — thousands of people — probably due to the economy. Foreclosures are up a mind-blowing 534% from last year, while water hook-ups, trash collection, and sales tax revenues are all down sharply. Substantial numbers of buildings have no water service, indicating abandonment, and sales tax revenues are down 8%. Even crime has declined.

Already Phoenix city government has to try and close a 22% revenue gap, of about $270 million, and if the state finds that the city is losing residents, it will cut its allocation of tax returns still further. Perhaps this is why the Mayor of Phoenix, Phil Gordon, scoffed at the reports of population decline.

"The growth of Phoenix, like all cities in the Valley, has slowed
significantly. But Phoenix's net growth is still positive, both in jobs
and population," he said.

Cognitive dissonance, anyone? Or is it just garden variety denial?

In any case, something is in the wind…as reflected in a sign I saw this morning in an empty storefront in downtown Phoenix. Guess we'll find out what kind of wind it is soon enough.

Exciting changes

How Air Pollution Reduces Rainfall in Phoenix…and maybe L.A.

A grad student at Arizona State University, Bohumil Svoma, yesterday gave a fascinating talk at the American Meteorological Society convention on new research showing that tiny particles of air pollution, mostly from car tailpipes, work to reduce the amount of winter rainfall in the Phoenix area.

It's a very clever study. Svoma and his advisor, Robert Balling, knew from much past research that this sort of pollution tends to suppress rainfall. The cleverness comes in finding a way to demonstrate that with data, which they did by correlating the amount of rainfall in Phoenix over the last twenty-five years against days of the week. (As Svoma said in the talk, there is nothing in nature comparable to the build-up of particulate matter in a city caused by increased commuter traffic.)

If the theory held true, then rainfall would be suppressed midweek, and more likely to fall on Sunday or Monday. [Ed. note — technical difficulties are hindering insertion of the graph, which is not protected, but the signal is clearly visible if you look at the study, as rainfall is dramatically lower midweek than on the weekend or on Monday.]

From the abstract (An Anthropogenic Signal in Phoenix, Arizona Winter Precipitation:

A substantial body of literature shows that the
varying concentrations of fine atmospheric
aerosols (PM2.5) impact precipitation processes;
generally, higher concentrations of these
aerosols tend to depress winter precipitation
especially in short-lived, shallow, and orographic
clouds. Phoenix, Arizona has a large population
relying heavily on motor vehicles as the primary
means of transportation. This results in a strong
weekly cycle of PM2.5 concentrations with a
maximum on Wednesday and Thursday and a
distinctive minimum on the weekend. To
determine any influence on rainfall, we analyze
daily precipitation records from 116 stations in
the Phoenix area and find a strong weekly cycle
in winter precipitation frequencies with maximum
values on Sunday and minimum values on
Thursday.

Svoma noted that although midweek winter rainfall was suppressed, total precipitation was not…but he added that he expected to see this signal in Los Angeles and other cities. Intriguing.

How to Make Money and Lose Water, Arizona Style

Kathy Jacobs, who managed water for twenty-three years in Arizona, is now leading an innovative thinktank drawing on three universities. The Arizona Water Institute just published a paper on the amount of water it takes to generate power in Arizona. A couple of interesting quotes:

On a national basis, the water withdrawn from rivers and other sources for use in electrical generating plants is now at parity with water withdrawn for irrigated agriculture.

Jacobs said that California uses about twenty percent of its total power to move, process, and treat water, and about thirty percent of its natural gas, much more than most states. She mentioned this report’s conclusion, that water and electricity are so “entangled” as to be almost indivisible in the planning process.

Jacobs encouraged us to look at this report, which points out that it takes so much water to generate power, especially nuclear and coal plant power, that when Arizona sells power to other states, mostly California, it is actually exporting the equivalent of huge amounts of water to those states – over fifty thousand acre feet annually.

Maybe not such a great idea for a desert community.

Trees, by M.S. Merwin

Tree people (you know who you are) should be aware of a book published this year by Nalini Nadkarni, about our intimate connection to trees, called Between Earth and Sky.

Nadkarni is an unusual and interesting figure. As a girl growing up in suburbia she loved to climb trees. As a young woman, after a brief tour through the world of dance, she came back to trees and became a “canopy scientist.” So she can still climb trees!

But what makes her book unique is her decision to bring poetry to the subject, as well as hard fact. Take a look at this example, by the great American poet W. S. Merwin.

He writes:

I am looking at trees
they may be one of the things I will miss
most from this earth
though many of the ones I have seen
already I cannot remember
and though I seldom embrace the ones I see
and have never been able to speak
with one
I listen to them tenderly
their names have never touched them
they have stood round my sleep
and when it was forbidden to climb them
they have carried me in their branches

— W. S. Merwin, “Trees”

 Isn’t that lovely?

Hard Times and a Little Coffee

Here's an image from a brilliant young, um, graphic artist. (Cartoonist isn't quite the right word.)

Savingsandfear

Lotta truth there, I can attest. But as Patti Smith, mulling over the suicide of a hedge fund manager points out, hard times may mean fear, but don't have to mean despair.

How wonderful it is to be alive. So many people fighting to live. So
many who won't make it. Not another Christmas. Not another cup of
coffee.

What is the point of this missive? Perhaps nothing but a moment of
reflection and an opportunity to wish the reader well. And since it is
the center of the holidays I raise my cup and wish you all the best.
Hard times are undoubtedly ahead but may we all face them with good
humor, flexibility and resolve.

As we move into a new year we also move into the Chinese year of the
ox. The ox is the sign of fortitude and hard work. Nothing will come
easy; no quick returns, no fast cash, no high profile investing, no
great losses. Prosperity through work. Work that strengthens the heart.

We can do that. Be oxen.

The other day I found an old letter I wrote in 1970 in Paris in a book
of Blaise Cendrars poems. I was reporting with shock that coffee had
gone up to 40 cents. Now it can cost up to 4 Euros. Nearly six dollars.
But we must have our coffee…

And well, its only money.

Barack Obama is Not a Hippie

Which is probably why he won't go for this "White House organic farm" idea.

Barack Obama is a liberal Democrat but not a hippie. He prefers jet planes to busses, cuts his hair about as short as a politician can, dresses immaculately but simply, and speaks admiringly of traditions such as faith, hard work, and scholarship. Although some of his ideas appeal to the left, part of the secret of his success, sez me, is his willingness to be neat, sleek, and respectful to old-fashioned America. That's why a lot of Republicans like him, I think, because he's actually a square.

So two idealists who went into debt to buy a "symbolic" bus called Topsy-Turvy from ice-cream millionaire hippie Ben Cohen and set out across the country in an effort to convince Obama to replace the White House lawn with a garden will not succeed. It's a shame. It's an excellent idea, even if an upside-down bus is a strange vehicle with which to carry the message. But perhaps that's what a person needs to do to attract attention in our busy world.

As this story in the food section of the Washington Post explains, the idea has been floated before, by California food mavens Michael Pollan and Alice Waters. Two veterans of the Peace Corps, Dan Simon and Casey Gustorarow, decided to make a crusade of it, and have been gardening on top of the bus, blogging, and solicting signatures for a petition for a White House farm as they drive across the country to D.C. You have to admire their idealism. And, as the story points out, Eleanor Roosevelt did plant a victory garden at the White House, so the "WHOfarm" is not beyond the bounds of possibility.

But Barack is not a hippie…and, methinks, is not going to associate himself with anything like this bus.

Topsyturvygardenbus

Science vs. a Love-Sick Astronaut

Short version: science doesn't stand a chance.

In the course of reviewing a couple of recent global warming books, Chris Mooney explains why we're falling to face the facts of "A Really Long Heat Wave." He writes with reason, not sweetness, but just enough piquancy to make his review enticing, despite the grimness of the news:

And thus the disconnect that is one source of the unfolding tragedy of our time. As Archer notes in The Long Thaw,
global warming could change the planet for the next 100,000 years,
which is how long it may take for igneous rocks to "breathe" back in
all the carbon dioxide we've released over just a few centuries.
Scientists say the Holocene period of the earth's history is giving way
to the Anthropocene — we human beings are now driving the planet,
recklessly pushing it to unimaginable disaster. But, hey, it's still
not pressing; there's always some breaking news development with more
apparent urgency.

Consider press treatment of the early 2007 release of the Fourth
Assessment Report of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. These U.N. reports, which come only once every five
years or so, sum up the considered judgment of the international
scientific community, and the 2007 report (whose authors were later
awarded a Nobel Peace Prize along with Al Gore) flatly said that global
warming is now "unequivocal" and predominantly human-caused. How did
the press respond? According to an analysis by the Pew Research Center,
global warming ranked fourth among news stories the week the report
came out. In total coverage, it lagged behind Iraq, the 2008
presidential campaign (this was January of 2007), and tensions
with Iran. By the next week, global warming had vanished from the
roster of top stories entirely, supplanted by, among other things, the
Super Bowl, the death of Anna Nicole Smith, and the bizarre story of an
astronaut "love triangle" that ended in attempted murder and kidnapping
charges.

Poetry at the Presidential Inauguration: A Bad Idea?

Seemingly the only way to be noticed as a poet in America today is to have an enormous personality, and then to go on and inflate it to a size suitable for mass media spectaculars.

(I'm thinking of the likes of Allen Ginsberg or Patti Smith, both of whom — by the way — are real poets, no matter how much they enjoyed and/or enjoy the spotlight.) 

So the news that the President-elect has called on the relatively obscure Elizabeth Alexander to read at his inauguration has brought forth a lot of grumbling. Few non-poets seem to like the concept. George Packer, the excellent New Yorker reporter/writer, in his blog Interesting Times lets go with an uncharacteristic blast of vitriol at the very concept:

For many decades American poetry has been a private activity, written
by few people and read by few people, lacking the language, rhythm,
emotion, and thought that could move large numbers of people in large
public settings. In response to the news about Obama’s inaugural, Derek
Walcott, who is about the only poet I can think of who might have
pulled it off, but wasn’t selected, said, “There have been great
occasional poets—poets who write on occasion. Tennyson was one. I think
Pope was another. Frost also.” It’s not an accident that Walcott
couldn’t name a poet born after 1874. And even Frost, who was chosen by
J.F.K. to read the first inaugural poem in American history, botched
the job, composing a piece of triumphalist doggerel that compared
Kennedy to the Roman emperor Augustus. The eighty-six-year-old Frost
kept losing his place in the winter sun’s glare, the wind whipped his
pages around on the podium, and finally he abandoned the effort, as if
he’d never really had much conviction in it, and instead read from
memory an earlier and better poem, “The Gift Outright.”

Poets polled on the choice by the Philadelphia Inquirer are far more enthusiastic about Alexander, but wouldn't you expect that? What poet is likely to slam another in this context, especially a critically-acclaimed poet such as Alexander?

But despite his bilious tone, Packer has a point, one that Brian Phillips articulated more clearly in a recent issue of Poetry, in an essay called Poetry and the Problem of Taste.

Phillips argues that we as a people have so lost our connection to poetry we can hardly hear it. It's  a spray of words to most of us most of the time, and almost worse than useless:

How taste comes into being, and what influences preside over its birth,
are questions about which a great deal has been written. An equally
interesting question, and one that has received far less attention, is
how taste occasionally dies. For it ought to go without saying that the
capabilities of taste are not present to the same degree in every art
audience; they will sometimes, with regard to one medium or another,
seem to weaken, to shrivel away. This phenomenon is always strange. It
does not, for instance, appear to be strongly related to the popularity
or the prestige of a given art form: taste is often intensely present
in the tiniest aesthetic subcultures on the Internet, while the
audience for, say, contemporary orchestral music, far more prestigious
in itself, appears largely bewildered in taste's absence. Indeed,
during the last hundred years it has been the most institutionally
prestigious art forms that have lost the most from their supply of
taste, that have seen taste thin around them like an expiring
atmosphere; and a great deal of the brittleness that we currently sense
in these arts is surely related to this.

What happens when the relationship between an audience and an art
form begins to fail? A kind of obscurity, something felt but not quite
formulated, overwhelms aesthetic judgment. It becomes difficult to say
what is good or bad, and worse, what one likes or dislikes. Somehow
these questions appear unconnected to what is actually happening. The
atmosphere fills with the bad air of theories. Conservative outcries
are feebly raised, in response to no evident controversy. Discussion
shies from the work of artists, withdraws to the question of survival,
the ominous question of the future. What will the way forward be?
Irving Howe wrote that all literary revolutions begin in an assault on
a standard of taste. Where will the next one begin, if the standard of
taste is a vapor?

Back on-line in Internet time, Packer went on to partially retract his complaint in a follow-up post (although he did point out that popular music, which is still a matter of taste in the country at large, might offer a better spokesperson for the occasion).

Someone like Bruce Springsteen, perhaps? Who may play the inauguration?

Despite these arguments, how better to make poetry a matter of public taste than to take it to the nation? A lot of us have doubts about modern art, but still remain willing to discuss sculpture, after all.

Here's hoping Alexander rises to the challenge. Poetry maven Al Filreis of UPenn suggests she could fall back on her War poem, if she can't come up with something good for the occasion, and helpfully offers a link to Alexander reading it.

It's an impressive poem, that begins with a startling line:

In the dream there was goo

Well, hmmm. Take a lot of nerve to read that one to the nation…