Okay everybody, thanks for your patience. Typepad broke through the logjam after a week and a half, discovering that the change in the graphics program they instituted had a downstream consequence. An inactive setting on the domain link between the official site and its Typepad posting version was preventing new posts from going up; they solved it, and we're back on the road. I'm going to take down all my whiny posts and get back to work. Thank you everybody for sticking around….
Obama Credits John McCain with a Good Idea
From his straightforward vision for the short-term economy statement from Monday 10/13/08:
“At a time when the ups and downs of the stock market have rarely
been so unpredictable and dramatic,” Mr. Obama said, “we also need to
give families and retirees more flexibility and security when it comes
to their retirement savings.”
Mr. Obama reprimanded his audience
when people started jeering at the mention of Mr. McCain’s name,
declaring: “We don’t need that. We just need to vote.”
Mr.
Obama praised Mr. McCain’s proposal to waive the rules that penalize
retiree withdrawals from 401(k)’s, saying: “I want to give credit where
credit is due.”
Obama praised Mr. McCain’s proposal to waive the rules that penalize
retiree withdrawals from 401(k)’s, saying: “I want to give credit where
credit is due.”
From Inside the Bottle, a Ray of Hope
Several voices in recent days have pointed out that despite the severity of our financial crisis, there is reason to hope that it could lead to better days. My favorite was the moderate Matt Millen, from the popular political talkshow Left, Right, and Center, who on Friday concluded with this:
On what has been a grim week, when everyone has been looking at the plunge in their 401(k) or their family portfolios, I want to offer a hopeful thought: We're still at only about 6% unemployment, nothing like the 25% or more before the Federal government really took innovative action in the early l930's. And we've got a nearly universal consensus that it is time to take big steps to stem what is a major financial crisis, before it can bleed into the larger economy. The fact that we're on the verge of that, and, if Obama can win, we will be in a situation where all bets are off, in terms of what the policy choices are, means that we could be at one of those creative moments where we reinvent capitalism to honor all the things that all of us want for the long-term.
Amen. Note the comparison with Ed Wilson's concept of "the bottleneck" — the idea that if we can survive our overpopulation, our devastation of the planet, and its consequent effects in the next fifty years — we can stabilize and live better, healthier, more harmonious lives. A description of his concept:
But the "bottleneck" of overpopulation and overconsumption can be
safely navigated: adequate resources exist, and in the end, success or
failure depends upon an ethical decision. Global conservation will
succeed or fail depending on the cooperation between government,
science and the private sector, and on the interplay of biology,
economics and diplomacy. "A civilization able to envision God and to
embark on the colonization of space," Wilson concludes, "will surely
find the way to save the integrity of this planet and the magnificent
life it harbors."
safely navigated: adequate resources exist, and in the end, success or
failure depends upon an ethical decision. Global conservation will
succeed or fail depending on the cooperation between government,
science and the private sector, and on the interplay of biology,
economics and diplomacy. "A civilization able to envision God and to
embark on the colonization of space," Wilson concludes, "will surely
find the way to save the integrity of this planet and the magnificent
life it harbors."
We need this kind of hope, methinks…
THE PARTY’S OVER (a song for the end of an era)
According to dozens of experts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal (see here) we're heading into a recession that will be the worst in fifty years, with at least three consecutive quarters of less-than-zero growth. Millions of homeowners face foreclosure, trillions of dollars have been lost in the stock market, and we're going to see a spike in joblessness — perhaps a big one.
In a jaw-dropping story in today's Washington Post, a news analyst even wonders if it's The End of American Capitalism? (Now there's a headline I never thought I'd see in a major US newspaper.)
Remarkably, this desperate tumult was predicted in better times last year by the edgy Austin-based folk-rocker Eliza Gilkyson. She's been performing The Party's Over on the road for months, and released it earlier this July on her record Beautiful World, to rave reviews in the UK. ( I have yet to see a single review of this record in the US yet, but maybe that's because newspapers are so busy firing critics, they're not bothering to review records anymore.)
In any case, take a look at this lyrics (or listen to the song) and ask yourself: Doesn't this (metaphorically) describe the nation today?
the party’s over, we had a blast
brought in the lawyers to cover our ass
left a note for the children, to clean up the mess
the party’s over
it was a big success!
brought in the lawyers to cover our ass
left a note for the children, to clean up the mess
the party’s over
it was a big success!
Download 03_the_partys_over.mp3
Things McCain Did Last Summer
Reading magazines like The New Yorker and Mother Jones, I've often seen Steve Brodner's artwork, and sometimes I've even appreciated it, but I never felt connected with him as an individual until I started visiting his site on the topflight aggregator Drawger.
Funny how that works. I've had the same experience with Tom Toles. I always liked his work. (I mean, who doesn't? The man's won a Pulitzer, and draws left-wing cartoons for a right-wing publication, the Washington Post.)
Still, it wasn't until I started seeing his sketches (available here) that I really liked Toles as a person. Curious. I wonder if anyone else feels this way.
But no matter…here's a truly devastating drawing by Brodner, sez me, on the demons of John McCain. He calls it Things We Did Last Summer.
Brodner's caption reads:
After all, the memory that will ring in John McCain’s ears during his
upcoming long winter vacation may be the things he heard in his rallies
from the kind of human beings his campaign attracted, and whose
“passion” he was counting on. It feels like he pretty much got what he
ordered. Skol, my friend.
upcoming long winter vacation may be the things he heard in his rallies
from the kind of human beings his campaign attracted, and whose
“passion” he was counting on. It feels like he pretty much got what he
ordered. Skol, my friend.
Conservative Attacks Sarah Palin, Endorses Obama (sort of)
In his recent conversation with a writer for The Atlantic, which has recently been reworked for the Internet age, prominent conservative David Brooks called Sarah Palin "a fatal cancer" on the Republican Party.
That's making a statement. Heck, that's just one step above calling her the Devil.
If Sarah Palin is the GOP's next candidate for the White House, don't expect an endorsement from the New Yorker David Brooks. He just wants her to go back to her redneck ways in Alaska and leave the rest of us civilized people alone.
But here's the kicker. In his interview, Brooks went on to speak admiringly of Joe Biden's big mouth, his ability to speak truth to power, and to check Obama's potential excesses. And he predicted that Obama would win the election by a nine percentage point margin.
Why is this significant? Not just because that means it's a landslide.
Because of l980.
Could Obama's victory be for the Democratic Party what Ronald Reagan's was for the Republicans?
That's what Brooks is hinting, using obscure facts. He knows that Obama admires what Ronald Reagan did in l980, the way he changed the country.He knows Obama wants a landslide; obliquely, the candidate has hinted at the need for a "transformation" of our nation's politics.
Could this be a conservative's oblique half-secret endorsement of the Democratic ticket?
The Bounce Becomes a Rocket
A consensus of polls, according to Five Thirty Eight, shows the Obama recovery becoming a rocket…let's hope the economy looks something like this over the next four years.
[Note: this is my third attempt to post under Typepad's new system…which is giving me hell]
Silver Lining Department: As Investments Sink, So Does GOP
James Wolcott, the wonderfully bitter wit for Vanity Fair, mourns the loss of his investment portfolio…but at least there's a silver lining. As it sinks, so does the Republican Party.
He writes:
Even as I wave a farewell hankie at my investment holdings as they
sink into the briny deep, I draw spiritual comfort from seeing the
McCain-McWinky campaign unceremoniously drown with them. McCain could
still win, but the advance signs of rapid decay are everywhere in his
campaign, a death mask forming with rictus sneer that resembles a
silent snarl. I harbor no grand illusions about Obama, he isn't my
messiah (I don't have a messiah, the writings of Ralph Waldo Emerson
supplying more than enough transcendence to last a lifetime), and I'm
still not sure how much he comprehends how gravely this country has
been gutted over the last decade. My rooting interest is less about
Obama himself than about how big a hurt he can put to the Republican
Party. I don't want the Republican Party simply defeated in November, I
want to see it smashed beyond all recognition, in such wriggling,
writhing, anguished disarray that it can barely reconstitute itself, so
desperate for answers that it looks to Newt Gingrich for visionary
guidance, his wisdom and insight providing the perfect cup of hemlock
to finish off the conservative movement for good so that it can rot in
the salted earth of memory unmissed and unmourned in toxic obscurity.
sink into the briny deep, I draw spiritual comfort from seeing the
McCain-McWinky campaign unceremoniously drown with them. McCain could
still win, but the advance signs of rapid decay are everywhere in his
campaign, a death mask forming with rictus sneer that resembles a
silent snarl. I harbor no grand illusions about Obama, he isn't my
messiah (I don't have a messiah, the writings of Ralph Waldo Emerson
supplying more than enough transcendence to last a lifetime), and I'm
still not sure how much he comprehends how gravely this country has
been gutted over the last decade. My rooting interest is less about
Obama himself than about how big a hurt he can put to the Republican
Party. I don't want the Republican Party simply defeated in November, I
want to see it smashed beyond all recognition, in such wriggling,
writhing, anguished disarray that it can barely reconstitute itself, so
desperate for answers that it looks to Newt Gingrich for visionary
guidance, his wisdom and insight providing the perfect cup of hemlock
to finish off the conservative movement for good so that it can rot in
the salted earth of memory unmissed and unmourned in toxic obscurity.
I really don't think that's too much to ask, even in these frugal times.
The issue also includes some wonderful portraits by the incomparable David Levine, including one of, yes, the puppet master Dick Cheney and his favorite boy toy:
Advice for Tough Times (from Loudon Wainwright III)
At the delightful (and crowded!) Hardly Strictly Bluegrass festival yesterday in San Francisco, the great wit Loudon Wainwright III concluded with a new song, as yet unrecorded, about the tough times we’re in.
First he joked that this was part of "The New Optimism," which he is able to offer because he has been a figure of famous pessimism throughout his career, so when he sees a silver lining to a dark cloud, he has credibility to talk about it. Then he plunged into the song, which has a nice ironic lilt to it, and the chorus:
It’s not the end of the world — just the middle of the night.
Roll it around in your mouth. Try it out on a friend. Could be a slogan for the naughts…
Here’s Loudon:
Palin Takes Global Warming Advice from Exxon-paid “Scientists”
For years environmentalists have been pressuring the US Department of the Interior to list the polar bear as a species threatened by global warming, arguing that their habitat — specifically, polar ice — is at risk.
There is no doubt that polar ice is shrinking dramatically, a fact the scientific consensus links to global warming: for a dazzling graphic version of this truth, see this from the Wall Street Journal.
This past May, the government agreed with the environmentalists — in part. The polar bear was listed as "threatened," but not granted a "critical habitat" to protect its livelihood, which makes the ruling more symbolic than meaningful.
Nonetheless, Sarah Palin as the governor of Alaska recently sued the Department of the Interior to overturn the ruling, arguing in part that such a ruling would "deter such activities…as oil and gas exploration and development."
Now it turns out that she and the state based their argument on a clutch of denialists, including the notorious Exxonians Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas, who with five other deniers wrote a paper (available here) that claims "Climate models are simply not skillful for the projection of regional sea-ice changes in Hudson Bay or the whole Arctic."
If you look more closely, you’ll see the paper doesn’t seriously challenge the skill of the climate models, which actually has been quite good — if anything, a little conservative — at predicting sea ice decline.
Instead it brings up other climate change denier talking points — specifically, solar variance — which Real Climate patiently debunks in a post called cuckoo science.
Maybe I’m idealistic (alright, I am) but I think that if this subject comes up in the debate tomorrow, Joe Biden should reference the fact that Sarah Palin is drawing her "scientific" arguments from outlier denialists funded in part by Exxon.
As The Guardian reported yesterday (see here):
The paper, entitled Polar Bears of Western Hudson Bay and Climate
Change, has been criticised for relying on old research and ignoring
evidence that Arctic sea-ice is melting at a quickening pace. Walt
Meier, a world authority on sea ice, based at the National Snow and Ice
Data Centre, said: "The paper doesn’t measure up scientifically."One
co-author of the paper, Willie Soon, completed the study with funding
from ExxonMobil – which has oil operations in Alaska’s North Slope – as
well as from the American Petroleum Institute. Soon was a former senior
scientist with the George C Marshall Institute, which acts as an
incubator for climate-change scepticism. The institute has received
$715,000 in funding from ExxonMobil since 1998.
That won’t hurt Palin with the GOP base, as Tom Toles points out below. But it could remind Independents and undecideds that she is not nearly the enemy of big oil she claims to be.
Kit Stolz 