Unstable jobs the new norm: LA + NY Times

Tiffany Hsu, a reporter for the Los Angeles Times, has this year done a terrific job of documenting changes in the nature of work today, especially here in California. Her conclusion to a recent piece on how "non-employees" (aka free-lancers) are becoming a powerful force deserved the lede I thought: 

The number of so-called non-employers — businesses with no employees, largely made up of people working for themselves — slipped at the beginning of the recession. But it has soared since, rising more than 10% between 2006 and 2012 to 2.9 million in the state, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The Freelancers Union, a national nonprofit that provides health insurance to its members, said its ranks have increased from 46,700 in 2007 to more than 240,000 this year.

Half of the U.S. workforce could be freelance by the end of the decade, the organization predicts.

That story came a couple of weeks ago. This past week came an even bigger story, on Sunday's front page, about how the lack of decent mid-level jobs is holding back the entire California economy:

Last year, average wages in Los Angeles County declined 1.9% — tying Jefferson, Ala., for 302nd place out of 334 large counties nationwide. San Francisco ranked 19th with a 3% increase.

Statewide, the middle class still makes up the largest chunk of households, but its share has shrunk since 2007, as it has for higher-earning households. Now, nearly a third of California households are in the bottom tier of the income range, up from fewer than a quarter.

Yesterday, in the New York Times, another crack reporter Jodi Kantor, known for reporting on the Obamas, did an astonishing job telling the story of a hard-working Starbucks barista and single mom struggling to support her son while at the beck and call of a corporate algorithm that determined when she would work. Giving her little notice, among its other cruelties. Sometimes she would have to close at 11 pm and open at 4 am to keep her job. 

Ms. Navarro’s fluctuating hours, combined with her limited resources, had also turned their lives into a chronic crisis over the clock. She rarely learned her schedule more than three days before the start of a workweek, plunging her into urgent logistical puzzles over who would watch the boy. Months after starting the job she moved out of her aunt’s home, in part because of mounting friction over the erratic schedule, which the aunt felt was also holding her family captive. Ms. Navarro’s degree was on indefinite pause because her shifting hours left her unable to commit to classes. She needed to work all she could, sometimes counting on dimes from the tip jar to make the bus fare home. If she dared ask for more stable hours, she feared, she would get fewer work hours over all.

Today, not twenty-fours after the story was published, Starbucks says they have altered their policy to ensure that workers get at least a week's notice of their schedule, among other changes. 

Out here in Ventura County, Hannah Guznik reported this week for California Health that the state agency that handles Medi-Cal had no idea how many (or few) doctors would accept its patients, leaving at least as many as 20,000 people seeking health care, and possibly 100,000s more. This week the legislature ordered an audit of the problem. 

Let me offer much respect to Guznik and Hzu and Kantor for jobs well done. Perhaps one of these days we as a culture will begin to thank "the media," instead of blaming them for anything and everything.  

Global warming: even the Mafia sees it now

From the great Frank Cotham at The New Yorker. Available here, on their new and infinitely more accessible website. (Complained about it a couple of months ago: it's so much better now!) 

Frank-cotham-i-ve-been-dumping-bodies-here-for-years-and-it-seems-to-me-that-the-sea-new-yorker-cartoon

Seems everyone can see the reality of global warming, except Congressional Republicans (58% denier) and members of the Tea Party (61% denier).

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To be young (and old) in the wild: This Feeling

Last week, in his un-ostentacious but no bullshit way, Nicholas Kristof of the NYTimes wrote a great column on the joys of being on the PCT. I'm not going to quote it, because it's hard to know which bit to choose, but encourage you all to take a look

Today, in a similar vein, but in a more beautiful and more poetic style, Katie Lei, a thru-hiker of a year ago, publishes on her marvelous Doodles page, a beautiful poem/drawing called This Feeling. 

Thisfeeling

Lei writes about being in the wilderness at the beginning of her adulthood, and about looking back on "this feeling" from the future. Reminiscent of another young poet, at the beginning of his career:

Ah, but I was so much older then
I'm younger than that now…

Flying tumbling vehicles: #1 movie visual today?

Took a look at the classic old disaster movie, Earthquake, from 1974, which has a great preview/trailer: 

This movie surprises, first of all, because its strongest images inadvertently connote 9/11. Not what one expects from a movie set in a natural disaster

Of course the plausibility question, so often an issue with disaster movies, cannot even be raised: heck, the Northridge quake of 1994, costing in the range of $40 billion in 1994, remains one of the worst natural disasters ever to befall the US. Earthquakes happen in Los Angeles.

So where do the writers — including Mario Puzo — choose to go for drama?

I can tell you where the writers of today go for drama — in this weekend's Into the Storm, to a couple of teenagers who barely know each other and find themselves on a video shoot in an abandoned factor as a monster torpedo spins near. 

Frankly, the dumbness doesn't almost matter — the movie does flying tumbling vehicles spectacularly well. Perhaps better than anyone. Witness the conclusion of the trailer, which uses silence and darkness to hint at a story — slightly reminiscent of the great preview for Twister — but thoughtfully short: 

Arguably flying tumbling vehicles — usually cars, but increasingly semis and even airplanes — have become the most dramatic visual of action movies (of various types) this century. Look at Fast and Furious, Transformers, The Dark Knight, the list goes on and on.  

Yes, all too often, that's what drama has come to on movie screens in 2014: will this tumbling semi-rig spin and tumble and crush our hero/the camera?

Okay, sorry. So in 1974. by contrast, with Mario Puzo of "Godfather" fame writing, where did the filmmakers choose to go for drama?

They focused on a love triangle around a super-successful architect/developer, played by Charlton Heston, who is being pursued by the extraordinarily beautiful Genevieve Bujold, dressed in neat peach-colored pants, turtleneck, and jacket. A single mom, she cares for her young boy more than anything, and saves him from a fiery and water disaster — in part due to her scandalous friendship with an influential married man. 

Probably her greatest role. The movie's great success and her bralessness made her a 70' icon, at least to some of us, and a website that tracks such culture epiphenomena as Susan Dey and Genevieve Bujold.  

Genevieve-bujold-earthquake-1974-image-6

And how did the writers convince us that Charlton Heston, playing an architect/developer vaguely reminiscent of John Galt, is as successful and worthwhile as he is good looking? 

He has a telephone in his convertible. It rings as he's driving and he picks up and answers. Yes, it's true. In l974. 

Final point. There are a pair of characters — a daredevil and his supportive pal — who play a surprising role in both movies.

In Earthquake, it's the always appealing Richard Roundtree, who has a scruffy white pal who helps him make up the stunts, transport the bike, also wear the leather outfit with lightning bolts, etc. In Into the Storm, it's a couple of redneck stunt-loving bozos who just want to get themselves into a YouTube video and get a million hits. They drive a beat-up old pick-up armored with sheet metal, spray-painted Twista Hunterz. It's pretty hilarious. 

So: short comparison/review. Into the Storm is a crummy movie with only one character of any real distinction, a beleagured high school vice principal. A little humor, and a bunch of teenagters who all but snore in speech. Oh well, the images are so strong it almost doesn't matter. Earthquake is a richer and far more cohesive movie, more emotional and less random, and its effects — which won a slew of awards, and two Oscars– retain great power. Movie also has a great soundtrack by John Williams, as well a startling character, an angry cop played by George Kennedy. He loses his temper (before the earthquake strikes) and sits down at a bar like a corrupt beat cop in a big city, and has a drink and a smoke while on duty.  Unexpected!

Perhaps these people deserve punishment for their sins? It's an interesting question on which to hang a disaster movie. Distantly related to the Grand Hotel/Stagecoach/Lifeboat group drama, but arguably better, if not especially deep. Was nominated for a Golden Globe as a drama.  

But forget story about for a minute — these are disaster movies! What images do we remember?

From Earthquake, a semi tumbling off a high free-way bridge and tumbling down towards another freeway.

Earthquakemovie

 

From Into the Storm, an image of parked passenger jets at an airport being blown back and ever so gently lifted into the air by the oncoming tornado two miles across…

Intothestormplanes

 

Storms, lighting, death at Venice beach: Climate change?

As Judith Lewis Mernit wrote for a blog with High Country News:

The weather of Venice Beach, California, where I live, is for the most part stable, and almost always predictable. No sudden squalls appear out of the southwest to chase skateboarders off their concrete ramps; never do we hear the civil-defense sirens warning of an approaching tornado. Living here, swimming and surfing at the beach a few blocks from my house, I have considered many threats: sharks, staph infections, rogue rip tides. Lightning was never on the list.

I didn't go to the beach on Sunday morning, July 27. Crowds generally clog up the swells on weekends, so I escaped to the mountains in Ventura County. When I left, the weather in Venice was gloomy with a mild drizzle — not an unusual syndrome for the Southern California coast — but by the time I hiked and returned to the car at around 3 pm, it had evidently taken a dramatic turn. When I flipped on the radio for the traffic report, I heard that just a half an hour earlier, a bolt of lightning had struck the water near Venice Pier, and 13 people had been injured. Two were found face down in the water.

She — like yours truly, the Los Angeles Times, and no doubt many others — were wondering: Could climate change be responsible?

Well, it's within the range of possibility. Climate models have brought it up. A study from 2013, led by David Pierce of Scripps, ran sixteen different general circulation models and found increasing monsoonal moisture in SoCal:

Winters show modestly wetter conditions in the North of
the state [CA], while spring and autumn show less precipitation.
The dynamical downscaling techniques project increasing
precipitation in the Southeastern part of the state, which is
influenced by the North American monsoon.

But Pierce will be the first to tell you that a) this is a projection fifty years into the future, and b) it's impossible to ascribe any weather event to a change in climate. It's like attributing a single car crash to ten years of traffic congestion. Statistically not possible.

Still, there is data to show an increase in monsoonal precipitation. Not only do we have these bizarre weather thunder and lighting storms at places like Santa Catalina Island and Venice beach, but we have a strong upsurge in monsoonal moisture this year. Keep in mind that these clouds, with their potential for thunder and lighting, come from the south, the Sea of Cortez, and rotate counter-clockwise across the Southwest, roughly speaking the reverse of the winter weather pattern we're accustomed to. 

Here's the monsoonal precipitation over Albuquerque this year: the highest in over 100 years [green line].  

MonsoonABQ

From John Fleck, a weather and climate reporter in Albuquerque. And here, from Daniel Swain's interesting Weather West site/feed, an image of the monsoonal surge a week [precipitable water anomalies, in green] a week before the storms that brought death to Venice beach.

Monsoonalsurge

It's too soon to connect the dots to climate — but not too soon to take cover. 

A deal to save the whales in the Santa Barbara Channel

So hard to keep up with even of a fraction of what is going on! But here for once is some maybe-semi-kind-of good news from the world of science and the environment.

Research published this june has shown that over a period of fifteen years whales traveling with the California current along the coast have been killed at a steady rate by cargo shipping in the Santa Barbara Channel.

I know that doesn't sound like great news, but wait! There's more. From Oregon State University:  

NEWPORT, Ore. — A comprehensive 15-year analysis of the movements of satellite-tagged blue whales off the West Coast of the United States found that their favored feeding areas are bisected by heavily used shipping lanes, increasing the threat of injury and mortality.

Just this week a fin whale floated dead into the harbor area near Pt. Hueneme. Killed by a marine form of blunt trauma. A ship strike?

Suspected.

At the same time, researchers have proposed plans they believe would markedly reduce the death rate. 

The researchers note that moving the shipping lanes off Los Angeles and San Francisco to slightly different areas – at least, during summer and fall when blue whales are most abundant – could significantly decrease the probability of ships striking the whales. A similar relocation of shipping lanes in the Bay of Fundy off eastern Canada lowered the likelihood of vessels striking endangered right whales an estimated 80 percent.

Well that sounds like a good idea. But today from Cheri Carlson at the VC Star news comes of a pilot program, funded by a foundation, working with the shipping industry, to bribe, er, incentivize firms to reduce speeds with payments of $2500 per passage. 

It's a different way to accomplish the same goal — to reduce the number of shipping-related fatalies, which could be as high as thirty whales a year, the experts say. 

So — a plan to reduce the number of fatalies, without costing the taxpayer anything?

Yes  please. 

Ships moving through the Santa Barbara Channel will slow down over the next few months as part of a trial program to help reduce air pollution and protect whales.

Shipping companies can receive a small financial incentive for reducing shipping speeds to 12 knots or less, in the trial modeled after similar programs at Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.

The Santa Barbara County Air Pollution Control District, Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary and the Environmental Defense Center have worked together to develop a program for this area.

"It's wonderful," said Dave Van Mullem, director of the Santa Barbara County Air Pollution Control District. "We have ships out there right now that are in the channel that are participating in this program."

The groups were able to launch the pilot program with a $20,000 grant from the Santa Barbara Foundation, and a matching grant from the air pollution control board.

But without interest from the shipping industry, the pilot program would have stalled.

Officials, however, got more interest than they could initially fund and are now seeking money to expand the trial.

Six shipping companies — COSCO, Hapag Lloyd, K Line, Maersk Line, Matson and United Arab Shipping Co. — are participating in the pilot program, which runs from July through October.

Selected ships will reduce their speed between Point Conception and the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Companies will receive $2,500 per vessel that passes through the channel at the reduced speed, which is monitored with transmitters along the coast.

Along with reducing air pollution, slowing down reduces the likelihood that a whale involved in a collision will be killed, officials said. Several species of whales, including those considered endangered, can be found in the area.

 Vesselspeedreduction

 Additional note: Tyler Hayden in the Santa Barbara Independent fills in some details today:

In a fortuitous stroke of good timing, a coalition of government, nonprofit, and environmental groups made a joint announcement on Monday that a trial incentive program has kicked off to slow ships in the channel. Reducing boat speeds from 14-18 knots to 12 knots or less, explained Sean Hastings with the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary, will not only better protect whales but also cut back on the massive amounts of pollution tankers spew into the air. The Santa Barbara County Air Pollution Control District has frequently noted that 50 percent of the area’s smog-forming pollution comes from the smokestacks of big ships passing through.

How to confuse the media and public: Butter ’em up

A few months ago the rapturous reporting of a new study on saturated fat caught my eye. Sounded too good to be true, and, well, long story short, that's exactly what it turned out to be.

Here's the opening, from the USC Annenberg/California Endowment's Reporting on Health site:

Time to jump on the bandwagon of saturated fat? 

Read the headlines about diet this year and you could easily think, "Why not?"

"Butter is back" said the New York Times in a headline on Mark Bittman's March 28 column. In his opening, Bittman sounded joyful, almost giddy, at the prospect of eating unlimited amounts of saturated animal fats: 

Julia Child, goddess of fat, is beaming somewhere. Butter is back, and when you’re looking for a few chunks of pork for a stew, you can resume searching for the best pieces — the ones with the most fat. Eventually, your friends will stop glaring at you as if you’re trying to kill them.

"Eat Butter," read the cover of Time, headlining a lengthy cover story in June by science writer Bryan Walsh.  

"Butter is bad — a myth," declared Joanna Blythman, of The Guardian. 

This surprising development in dietary medicine made headlines around the world. Almost unnoticed in the aftermath was the strong pushback from the international research community. 

Perhaps the pushback didn't make headlines because it wasn't what lovers of cheese, meat and butter wanted to hear. 

The interesting thnig about reporting this piece is how surprisingly willing leading experts were to actually talk. I queried one leading researcher in Cambridge, expecting if lucky he might respond to an email, but he asked to talk on the phone. For which I remain grateful.

Perhaps health issues bring out the good in people. Even if sometimes misreported.

Fat-cover

Note: I think it's fair to point out that this story on the Reporting on Health site turned out to be unexpectedly popular — seems to have hit a nerve. Always great to hear people are listening. 

 

 

The wisdom of Carl Jung on Eros and love (not)

In my medical experience as well as in my own life I have again and again been faced with the mystery of love, and have never been able to explain what it is. Like Job, I have had to “lay my hand on my mouth. I have spoken once, and I will not answer.”

–Carl Jung

From Late Thoughts, a chapter towards the end of Jung's classic memoir Memories, Dreams, Reflections

I falter before the task of finding the language that might adequately express the incalculable paradoxes of love. Eros is a kosmogonos, a creator and father-mother of all higher paradoxes of all higher consciousness. I sometimes feel that Paul's words — "Though I speak with the tongues of men and angels, and have not love" — might well be the first condition of all cognition and the quintessence of divinity itself. Whatever the learned interpretation may be of the sentence "God is love," the words affirm the complexio oppositorum of the Godhead. 

In my medical experience as well as in my own life I have again and again been faced with the mystery of love, and have never been able to explain what it is. Like Job, I have had to "lay my hand on my mouth. I have spoken once, and I will not answer." 

Jung_carl_g-19650225.2_png_300x412_q85

You have to like the genuine humility, the not knowing, though I do wonder how in that state he couild help his love-stricken patients find their way through the mystery and the bewilderment of love. 

[image from the irreplaceable David Levine of the 1965 NYRB: available here]

Reminds me of an apparently very famous quote from the 20th century philosopher Wittgenstein, of the same era and similar background, who described his first great book about knowing and the metaphysical by saying in conversation, as described in a recent NYTimes review:

What can be said at all can be said clearly, and what we cannot talk about, we must pass over in silence.

"Thus the philosopher Ludwig Wittgenstein summarized his first, notoriously difficult book,’Tractatus Logico-Philosophicus.” Wittgenstein’s declaration is usually taken to mean that talk about anything metaphysical — God or gods, supernatural phenomena, mystical experience — collapses into nonsense under scrutiny."

For Jung, it's easier to talk about God and the unconscious than love and sex. For Wittgenstein, it's easier to talk about talking about God than either God or the unconscious or love and sex.

Jung has no difficulty admitting he cannot talk about love — for reasons professional and personal. Is this admirable, or a bit of an evasion I wonder? 

Climate change inaction threatens economy: White House

This week the White House released a climate report on its blog. (Did you know the White House has a blog?) You can "get it" just from the title: The cost of delaying action on climate change

As political/scientific statements go, it's blunt and to the point. The longer we wait to act to reduce emissions, the more it will cost the economy, and the less likely we will to succeed. 

John Podesta, the semi-new chief of staff, is the co-author, and displays a hard authority in his prose:

If delayed action causes the mean global temperature increase to stabilize at 3° Celsius above preindustrial levels, instead of 2°, that delay will induce annual additional damages of 0.9 percent of global output. To put this percentage in perspective, 0.9 percent of estimated 2014 U.S. GDP is approximately $150 billion. The next degree increase, from 3° to 4°, would incur greater additional annual costs of 1.2 percent of global output. These costs are not one-time: they are incurred year after year because of the permanent damage caused by additional climate change resulting from the delay.

$150 billion a year? Holy bleep. Then we have Robert Rubin, former Treasury secretary back in the good old days under Bill, declaring flatly that climate change inaction will kill the economy

Clearly no one can contemplate a rise in temperatures beyond 3 degrees Celsius — except a few nutty scientists and writers, and perhaps a few climate refugees, such as an old friend moving to Portland. 

Cliff Mass, a meteorologist in the Seattle area, makes a compelling argument for the Pacific Northwest as the place for climate refugees…and has an idea how to keep the Californians out. 

Border2

 

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