A Cold Winter, A Good Rain, a Hot Spring

As we head into spring, it’s natural to take a look back at the winter of 2007-2008.

This was a cold winter, both for those of us on the ground on the West Coast, and, unsurprisingly, for atmospheric measuring instruments. Variability in weather is of course still with, as is the chill associated with La Nina. But what did come as a surprise was a story by Richard Harris on National Public Radio, called “The Mystery of Global Warming’s Missing Heat,”  about the lack of warming detected in the oceans over the last four or five years,

This has brought on a flurry of climage change denier claims that somehow, global warming is over.

To quote Chris Horner, of The National Review: “What’s global warming without the warming called?”

The Harris story itself suggested the possibility the oceans might be transferring heat to the atmosphere more quickly than expected. And a broader look at the question from The Oregonian repeatedly raised the point that a cold winter, connected to La Nina, drops temperatures without reversing the trend.

In the short window of a few months, routine shifts in
weather such as the one the Northwest is experiencing now —
driven by a well-known climate cycle known as La Nina —
easily overwhelm whatever trends might be gripping the globe
over years or decades.

The cool resurgence is fueling arguments by global warming
skeptics that natural forces, not human factors such as
greenhouse gases, dominate the climate.

But Northwest climate scientists say it’s a matter of
short-term versus long-term perspective. The cool winter
doesn’t mean there’s no warming trend, they say.
Any trend remains subtle and is simply hidden for the time
being.

James Hansen made the same point, with three graphs and some sharp comments. In an entry posted to his site called simply Cold Weather, he said about these graphs:

The reason to show these is to expose the recent nonsense that has appeared in the blogosphere, to the effect that recent cooling has wiped out global warming of the past century, and the Earth may be headed into an ice age.  On the contrary, these misleaders have foolishly (or devilishly) fixated on a natural fluctuation that will soon disappear.

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Down here in SoCal, the spring has already turned “unseasonably hot. ” Two deer appeared on our property, cautiously but curiously appearing out of the streambed, and nosing around the vinca. Puppies and dogs have gone missing — coyotes are suspected. A afternoon wedding was beautiful to look in a hot sun.

We had a good winter for rain — better than many of us expected, given the La Nina condition. Could there be a connection to increased levels of water vapor? Could this heating have already be transferred to the air, as hinted in the Harris story? Further research needed…

King Salmon Crash: Fishery Expected to Close in CA, ORE

In response to a huge crash in the numbers of spawning chinook (king) salmon this fall, Federal and state officials are for the first time expected to disallow or severely restrict salmon fishing in Oregon and Northern California and off the coast, according to the Los Angeles Times.

The newspaper looks at this mostly in terms of government action and economic harm, but one could just as well highlight the fact that this year only 7.5% of what once was a healthy number of fish came up the Sacramento River this fall to spawn, down from 800,000 six years ago down to about 60,000 now.

That number is not sustainable, the experts say.

Federal scientists blame the anemic returns on a variety of factors,
but have focused on poor ocean conditions, potentially linked to global
warming, that have caused the chinook’s food sources to plummet.

But anglers also blame troubles in the environmentally fragile
Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, where fish populations have plummeted
because of pollution, predators and increased water exports to the
south.

The news coverage on the salmon crash from the Portland Oregonian was less bluntly stated, but the message was the same.

Steve Williams, assistant fish division administrator at the
Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, said he could not
recall another instance where salmon declines were as stark
and widespread along so many West Coast rivers at once.

"It’s somewhat unprecedented to see this extent of
impact," he said.

A New York Times account dug into the possibilities, but came no real conclusion.

Bill Petersen, an oceanographer with the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration’s research center in Newport, Ore., said
other stocks of anadromous Pacific fish — those that migrate from
freshwater to saltwater and back — had been anemic this year, leading
him to suspect ocean changes.

After studying changes in the
once-predictable pattern of the Northern Pacific climate, Mr. Petersen
found that in 2005 the currents that rise from the deeper ocean,
bringing with them nutrients like phytoplankton and krill, were out of
sync. “Upwelling usually starts in April and goes until September,” he
said. “In 2005, it didn’t start until July.”

Mr. Petersen’s
hypothesis about the salmon is that “the fish that went to sea in 2005
died a few weeks after getting to the ocean” because there was nothing
to eat. A couple of years earlier, when the oceans were in a
cold-weather cycle, the opposite happened — the upwelling was very
rich. The smolts of that year were later part of the largest run of
fall Chinook ever recorded.

Hmmmm. Seems to me if you’re going to link a die-off to a change in ocean conditions, you need to talk about what is happening in the ocean and why it’s happening — otherwise, why bother? But the Knight Journalism Science Tracker has a different view, and helpfully provides all sorts of links. Take a look.

BACKGROUND: A little over a decade ago, based on observations of huge temperature swings in the Gulf of Alaska, linked to shifts in fish population, University of Washington researchers identified a phenomenon now  known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

[In one oscillation] warm PDO phases
have favored high salmon production in Alaska and low salmon production
off the west coast of California, Oregon, and Washington states. Conversely,
cool PDO eras have favored low salmon production in Alaska and relatively
high salmon production for California, Oregon, and Washington (Hare 1996,
Hare et al. 1999).

Warm phases of PDO are correlated with El Niño-like North
American temperature and precipitation anomalies, while cool phases of
PDO are correlated with La Niña-like climate patterns.

Okay, but according to NOAA, we’re in a strong La Nina condition right now.

The most recent dynamical and statistical SST forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region continue to indicate a moderate-to-strong La Niña through March 2008, and a weaker La Niña through April-May-June 2008 (Fig. 5). Thereafter, there is considerable spread in the forecasts, with approximately one-half indicating that La Niña could continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall.Current atmospheric and oceanic conditions and recent observed trends support the likely continuation of La Niña through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2008.

Is this what they mean by "unprecedented?" We’re in a cool PDO/La Nina condition which should lead to "relatively high" numbers of salmon spawning on the West Coast, but instead they’re crashing?

And if this is the case, why don’t these papers tells us?

Jeez.

In any case, the upshot for the fishery this year is clear. Dick Pool, of Water for Fish, put it bluntly:

"2008 and 2009 are toast as
fishing seasons."

UPDATE: According to an op-ed in The Los Angeles Times by Carl Pope, who for decades has been at the helm of the Sierra Club, global warming is known to threaten the survival of the salmon on the West Coast. Also known is the fact that a solution exists — to make sure the salmon can migrate to their paradisaical grounds in the mountains of Idaho. Pope writes:

Scientists believe the salmon that spawn in this place likely have the
best chance of any salmon populations in the Lower 48 states to adapt
to, and thus survive, global warming. This habitat, nearly all above
4,000 feet in elevation, will stay cool even as temperatures rise in
other areas. It will give salmon the firmest footing from which to
self-adapt in the face of warming. And because the area is already
protected as wilderness and public land, it is likely to face less
development pressure and could offer refuge for years to come.

In the face of the great flood, Noah had to build an ark, but this one
comes already made. All we need to do is help the salmon get there.

The
heart of the refuge lies in the Salmon River Mountains high above the
Pacific Ocean, hundreds of miles from the coast. But the route between
the ocean and the spawning ground — the ark — is choked by eight
dams, which kill up to 90% of the area’s native salmon as they journey
out to sea and back again.

I’m glad the opinion section published the piece, and I’ll look into the issue further. But it pisses me off that I learned so little about this issue from news stories in three or four separate newspapers.

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Geek Love: Past and Present in Rechargeable Batteries

I can keep it short because Jeff Atwood gives you a decade’s worth of experience with rechargeable batteries in a post of a mere thousand words or so, called Adventuries in Rechargeable Batteries.

Bottom line: fast-charge battery chargers can ruin rechargeable batteries.

Atwood tells you to spend a little more — forty bucks on a battery charger — and take advantage of the fact that modern batteries, if handled carefully, can handle hundreds of charges.

Plus, this charger can charge not just the usual "A" and "AA" batteries, but also the much bigger "C" and "D" batteries. And you can see the charge flowing into the battery, and track its progress.

While I’m employed, will try this, and report results in a month or so.

(H/t: Lifehacker)

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The Wit Detector (Theater 150 edition)

Theater 150 in Ojai, California, is a hotbed of humor, both amateur and professional. Comedian (or, as they say in the biz, comic) Cary Odes teaches a class three or four times a year for those who want to try their hand at making others laugh, for one, and the Theater 150 stage also attracts a parade of funny people — many of them musicians.

Here’s a sampling, just from the past weekend:

A white-haired lady from Cary’s class, CaroleJo, about 70, who looks nice, but admits she’s not — “I’m a bitch.” She goes on to tell the crowd that her kind of pickiness just doesn’t sound as good in a nursery rhyme for kids as does the traditional kindly grandma. Imagine how it would sound if sung…

”Here we go to Grandmother’s house, to get some cri-ti-si-sm…”

A gorgeous teenager named Kelsey Westphal, all of 17, does a standup routine with barely a trace of self-consciousness, and includes this line about this pretty little town of Ojai, CA…

"Ojai is so scary — the adults are more stoned than the kids.”

Bonus line, from John McEuen of the Nitty Gritty Dirt Band, performing with his kids Nathan and Jonathan:

“People don’t know it, but I’m a Californian. I was born in Oakland. My first words were: “Hey, get me out of here!”

James Hansen Proves His Ability to Predict the Future

Now we return to the thrilling yesteryear of l981, when James Hansen and a team of scientists at the Godard Institute of Space Studies released a study called Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Take a gander at the summary:

The global temperature rose by 0.2 degrees C between the middle 1960’s and l980, yielding a warming of 0.4C in the past century. The temperature increase is consistent with the calculated greenouse effect due to measured increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Variatons of volcanic aerosols and possibly solar luminosity appear to be primary causes of observed fluctuations about the mean trend of increasing temperature. It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming should emerge from the noise level of climate variability by the end of the century, and there is a high probability of warming in the l980’s. Potential effects on climate in the 21st century include the creation of drought-prone regions in North America and centra Asia as part of a shifting of climactic zones, erosion of the West Antarctica ice sheet with a consequent worldwide rise in sea level, and the opening of the fabled Northwest Passage.

In assessing the accuracy of his forecasting, we note that solar luminosity has declined somewhat, and volcanic aerosols now are much better understood as factors. Because in part due to the infamous hole in the ozone layer, Antarctica has proven to be less vulnerable to warming than originally thought. Otherwise, Hansen was precisely on target, and concluding with a reference to the opening of the Northwest Passage in the 21st century gave the writing a poetic touch that proved to be right on time.

In short, the mild-mannered James Hansen did remarkably well…especially considering what his fellow physicist Niels Bohr once said.

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.

The Dog Keeps Coming Back in the Dream…

Late Self-Portrait by Rembrandt

The dog, dead for years, keeps coming back in the dream.
We look at each other there with the old joy.
It was always her gift to bring me into the present—
Which sleeps, changes, awakens, dresses, leaves.
Happiness and unhappiness
differ as a bucket hammered from gold differs from one of pressed tin,
this painting proposes.
Each carries the same water, it says.

—Jane Hirschfield

From a shockingly good free on-line magazine called Narrative. Here’s a portrait of Hirshfield, a personal fave, by Jack Smith:

Jane_hirshfield_by_jack_smith

 

Stabilizing Climate Requires Near-Zero Emissions

More good atmospheric news: According to young researchers Ken Caldeira and Damon Matthews, reducing carbon emissions by 80% by the year 2050 may not be enough to stabilize the climate.

In a study just published in the Geophysical Research Letters, with the actually kinda catchy title Stabilizing Climate Requires Near-Zero Emissions, they argue that because substantial proportions of CO2 in the atmosphere linger for thousands of years, "any future anthropogenic emissions will commit the climate system to
warming that is essentially irreversible on centennial timescales."

Oh joy. They write:

Recent research has highlighted the very long lifetime of anthropogenic
carbon in the atmosphere; while approximately half of the carbon
emitted is removed by the natural carbon cycle within a century, a
substantial fraction of anthropogenic CO2 will persist in the atmosphere for several millennia [Archer, 2005]. A recent analysis by Montenegro et al. [2007] found that 25% of emitted CO2 will have an atmospheric lifetime of more than 5000 years. Studies of the climate response to declining CO22 [Friedlingstein and Solomon, 2005].
However, as we demonstrate here, because of the high heat capacity of
the ocean, global temperatures may not parallel decreases in
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, but rather will
increase and remain elevated for at least several centuries.

For the newspaper version, take a look at a story in Sunday’s Wa-Po by Juliet Eilperin.

“Tearing a Page out of the Bible”

James Merritt, a twenty-five-year-old theology student, used this phrase to an AP reporter to explain how a professor inspired him to support a movement among his fellow Southern Baptists to help preserve the traditional climate.

His professor had compared destroying God’s creation to "tearing a page out of the Bible."

"That
struck me. It broke me," the younger Merritt said in an interview, "and
that was the impetus that began a life change, a shift of perspective
for me."

Of course a handful of skeptics remain, including James Dobson of Colorado Springs, and Charles Colson of the Nixon administration, Stephen Milloy, an Exxonian, and Rush Limbaugh, an anti-liberal. Colson and Dobson claim that this environmental problem is "great exaggerated."

But Merritt’s proposal convinced the president of the largest group of Protestants in the US, with 16.3 million Southern Baptists, to stop the foot-dragging. Just last year the Southern Baptists doubted the science of climate change, and in a 2007 declaration suggested that measures to reduce the damage could "hurt the poor."

In the 2008 statement, the Southern Baptists said:

"We believe our current denominational resolutions and engagement with
these issues have often been too timid. Our cautious response to these issues in the face of mounting evidence
may be seen by the world as uncaring, reckless and ill-informed. We can
do better."

Frankly, I’m surprised at this change of heart — and delighted. Will try to talk to Merritt, find out more.

(h/t: Dan Bloom)

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