Rolling the dice on El Nino: Too soon to predict?

Given that this is the worst drought on record in California, it's natural for people to hope for El Niño and all the rain that a good strong El Niño can bring. As the San Francisco Chronicle reported:

…even as hope dims for a March miracle storm, climatologists say weather conditions could change this year if an El Niño takes shape. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño watch this month, citing a 52 percent chance of Pacific Ocean waters warming and creating – possibly – a wetter-than-average winter.

The possibilities were discussed more thoroughly by Bob Henson of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earlier this month. Henson hinted at an underlying excitement:

Most of the El Niño events over the last 15 years have been on the weaker side. However, some conditions in the western tropical Pacific are now strikingly similar to those that preceded the two strongest El Niño events of the last century: 1982–83 and 1997–98.

If El Niño doesn’t take shape in the next several months, we may not see it this year at all. “Once you get toward summer, the odds of getting a major El Niño certainly start to go down,” says NCAR scientist Kevin Trenberth.

Should a truly significant El Niño event develop by June or July, it would give us months of advance notice about which parts of the United States are likely to be cooler, milder, wetter, or drier than average come next winter. You still wouldn’t have a specific forecast for New Year’s Day or Groundhog Day in your hometown, but even a slight shift in seasonal odds—as long as it’s a confident shift—could mean millions of dollars for utilities, agricultural firms, insurance companies, and others in a position to hedge big bets.

Yet note the hedge: "most of the El Niño events of the last fifteen years have been on the weaker side." Ask Bill Patzert of JPL/NASA, one of the best forecasters of the phenomenon, why that might be and he will point to a larger ocean phenomena — the Pacific Decadal Oscillation — and argue that there's a reason most of these events have been weak. They've been swamped by the PDO, which turned negative fifteen years ago. It's still strongly negative, as this chart from the U of Washington shows:

Pdoindex_big
 

It's noteworthy that the most prominent critic of NOAA's predictions has been right in the past, about El Niño, and is saying pretty much what he was saying seven years ago, when an El Niño event was predicted. From a great story by Hector Becerra in the Los Angeles Times in March 2007:

When it comes to El Niño, NOAA tends to emphasize data
from a network of buoys running across the equatorial Pacific from Asia to
the Americas. They make measurements on the upper 500 meters in the
ocean, where the major deviations in temperature take place. The weather
consequences can be dramatic depending on the size of the temperature
increase, the area of ocean involved and the duration of the phenomenon.

For NOAA, an increase of about 1 degree Fahrenheit over three months in
a defined area of the Pacific meets the threshold for El Niño.

Patzert, on the other hand, is an expert in analyzing satellite data.
The satellites measure the elevation of the sea surface as a result of the
expansion of water as temperatures increase in the upper 500 meters. The
satellites are not as hyperfocused on El Niño and look beyond to other
climate patterns.

One of those patterns is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a slow-moving
variation of temperatures between the western and eastern sections of
the Pacific. In 1998, the western Pacific was becoming warmer than the
eastern Pacific, leading Patzert to conclude that in the long term, an "El
Niño-repellent" pattern was forming that would favor drought in Southern
California for many years.

Patzert still sees an  El Niño-repellant pattern in place, and has scoffed at "the great WET hope" before, and may scoff again. Even the chart the forecasters put up as evidence of  El Niño looks a little thin:

Enso_outlook_CPC_march6

How many chips do you want to put on a 52% probability? 

Related articles

Is A Super El Niño Coming That Will Shatter Extreme Weather And Global Temperature Records?
Talk of a 'super' El Niño out in the Pacific
Drought expert to Ojai: You have too many damned trees
El Nino and Summer

The lightly connected blossoms of spring: Kay Ryan

This one from the wondrously succinct Kay Ryan speaks to me of spring:

"So Different," Kay Ryan

A tree is lightly connected

to its blossoms.

For a tree it is

a pleasant sensation

to be stripped

of what’s white and winsome.

If a big wind comes,

any nascent interest in fruit

scatters. This is so different

from humans, for whom

what is un-set matters

so oddly—as though

only what is lost held possibility.

DSC00216

May I say on this spring Sunday that wisteria too is lightly connected to its blossoms — and it's lovely how they fall. 

American public exceptionally dumb: Ted Rall

The 'toon below from Ted Rall is factually accurate. It's a fact that the much-reviled mainstream media reported on the NSA spying on Americans long before Edward Snowden spoke up. (To give an example, back in 2012 James Bamford in Wired reported that "The NSA…has the ability to eavesdrop on phone calls directly and in real time." I remember because I posted a llnk to the story.) 

This week in the Washington Post Barton Gellman reports that the NSA has the capability to record 100% of telephone calls in "a foreign nation" and keep the recordings for a month of data mining. 

The reaction from the American public?

A shrug. Near as I can tell. Didn't make the national news. Exceptionallydumb

But maybe it's not so much that Americans are dumb, but that they really don't try to get the full picture. They read the news for drama. So "revelations" from an insider — supposedly an espionage-related betrayal — make a lot more news than, well, the news. 

Facing Drought Together: Ojai Valley News

Let me share Kimberly Rivers' thoughtful newspaper story about an event here in town I helped launch —Facing Drought Together – which did draw a good crowd, and got a lot of conversation started I hope.

Here's an excerpt from story in the Ojai Valley News: 

1-DSC_0391“I took away the realization that a lot of other people in Ojai share my concern,” said event organizer and moderator, Kit Stolz, after the event. “If we really are looking at another decade or more of drought — which is quite possible — we will have to be prepared to make changes, and to see change happen in our town and in our environment. That won’t be easy, but I feel much less alone, and that’s deeply helpful.”

Stolz is a longtime freelance reporter in Ventura County and a resident of Upper Ojai. He was inspired to plan this event when the man he called to look at his water well suggested that he “cut way back and pray for rain.”

“This is the right conversation to be having,” said Ched Myers, Ojai resident, author and theologian,“not as an extraordinary event, but as a regular event in the life of this community.”

“We are a community because we share a watershed,” said Victoria Loorz, associate pastor at Ojai Valley Community Church. Loorz, Myers and other spiritual leaders from the valley closed Sunday’s event, saying prayers for rain. “This is a spiritual issue, as much as it is a practical issue,” said Loorz.

[pic of yours truly]

Drought expert to Ojai: You have too many damned trees

JPL/NASA scientist Bill Patzert gave Ojai some hell this afternoon, as part of the Facing Drought Together event: From an excellent, may I say, story in the Ventura County Star by Anne Kallas:

“Don’t expect a quick fix. Droughts are slow in coming, and they are slow getting out of. We need to change the way we use water,” said Patzert, who cited a dramatic rise in population in Southern California, a semiarid area that is supported by water imported from the Colorado River and the northern part of the state.

Patzert said state residents must change their water habits.

“We need to change the way we manage water. It starts with how you vote. And you’ve got too many damned trees. Do you know how much water trees use?” he said to gasps from the Ojai audience.

Bill Patzert loves to provoke. It's how he keeps the audience awake as he discusses the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which he convincingly argues modulates the global warming signal, and may keep us in drought for another decade. He scoffs at the NOAA forecast of a "50-50" chance of an El Nino next year, calling it "the great WET hope." 

DSC_0418

Will bring you more on this event soon, or you can read the full story at: http://www.vcstar.com/news/2014/mar/09/panelists-discuss-drought-in-ojai/#ixzz2vXjN54Gt 
– vcstar.com 

Everything you always wanted to know about drought*

Four of us from the Ojai Valley area, all concerned citizens from very different backgrounds, think that we need to talk frankly about the drought, and more, do what we can about it. Not just for ourselves, our properties, gardens, orchards, trees, lands, and wildlife, but also for our community.

This Sunday, at the Ojai Retreat, one of my favorite scientists, Bill Patzert, will I expect scare us with his talk on the history of drought in California and the Southwest, along the lines of this recent piece of his in Los Angeles magazine. 

Let’s look back over the last 20 centuries: We’ve seen tremendous droughts in the American West. In the 11th century there was an 80-year drought along the Colorado. This is before global warming by anthropogenic—or man-made—sources. The 20th century, which is when we built our civilization in California, was one of the wettest in 2,000 years. It was an anomaly. We know this from tree ring records. We have built a civilization, which is the sixth- or seventh-largest economy in the world, based on imported water in a wet century. How do you like that?

Patzert's talk will be followed by a panel discussion, with Steve Bennett, of the Board of Supervisors; Russ Baggerly, of the Ojai Basin Groundwater Management Agency, Steve Sprinkel, of The Farmer and the Cook, and Steve Wickstrum, of Casitas Municipal Water District, moderated by yours truly. 

Here's an op-ed I had in Ojai Valley News on the subject of this event, below, but the basic point to be made is simple — if in the Ojai area, come join us this Sunday, from 1:45 to 5:15. It's free with a reservation. 

FACING DROUGHT TOGETHER: Concerned Citizens of Ojai Valley

         According to meteorological records from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, California has been in drought for the last thirty months, and the last two months have been as dry as any winter since the 19th century. That was when Mark Twain supposedly remarked, “Everyone talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.”

         Here in Ojai, where we are dependent on local sources for all our water, we need to face up to this issue. Four of us from the Ojai Valley area, all concerned citizens from very different backgrounds, think that we need to talk frankly about the drought, and more, do what we can about it. Not just for ourselves, our properties, gardens, orchards, trees, lands, and wildlife, but also for our community.

         It’s not a stretch to say that a successful culture depends on fresh clean water, and not only is it as dry as it has ever been in the instrumental record in California, but paleoclimatologists suggest – working with evidence such as tree-ring records – that this may be the driest period since the year 1580, a year they say almost no precipitation hit the Sierra Nevada.

         For this reason, we are hold an afternoon drought conference March 9th at The Ojai Retreat. We will begin with a “big picture” talk from Bill Patzert, a veteran overseer of a NASA satellite program, and perhaps the leading voice on the climate and meteorology of Southern California.

         The governor and legislature have proposed funding for a groundwater storage lan they say will make a difference for the state, but Ojai and part of Ventura, dependent on the Ventura River watershed, have our own water management decisions to make.

         Already some voices in the community have called for mandatory water conservation measures; meanwhile Ventura and Los Angeles offer assistance to homeowners who convert turf lawns to water-conserving or ocean-friendly gardens.

         Probably we can agree on the need to conserve water, but which path towards that goal will we take? We are not at mandatory conservation yet, but now is the time to discuss constructive actions to keep our community together. Water in crisis has the potential to pit neighbor against neighbor – which only makes matters worse.

         For this reason, as a reporter, I will ask questions of a panel of prominent government officials, (including Steve Bennett from the Board of Supervisors, Steve Wickstrum from Casitas Municipal Water District, and Russ Baggerly from the Ojai Basin Groundwater Management Agency); Steve Prinkel, of the Farmer and the Cook, and Deborah Pendrey, of the Ojai Valley Green Coalition. We hope the ensuing discussion will clarify the issues and possible choices without rancor.

         Because we believe in helping each other save water, we also are holding a workshop session, organized by civil engineer Bill O’Brien, on greywater strategies. Cinnamon McIntosh from Casis MWD will offer instruction on water saving in the home, and Renee Roth will speak on water conserving gardens.

         Pastor Victoria Loorz has called on spiritual leaders from the community, and with Ched Myers, Jule Stensile-Tumamait, among others, will help us see how the watershed connects us both physically and spiritually, and how we can benefit from praying together in our different ways.

         The director of the Ojai Retreat, Ulrich Brugger, wanted to host this event especially – to give us a chance, at least for one day, to be together on this issue, and to find a communality in our plight.

         Please join us. This is a donation-only event, but seating is limited; make reservations at 640-1142.

Here's NOAA's drought monitor for CA…after the recent rainstorms. Here in Ventura County, we're in "extreme drought," but it could be worse — we could be in the brown/"exceptional drought" category. 

DroughtmonitorCA3:4

*but were afraid to ask.

Related articles

Patzert: The history of the world is written in droughts
Facing Drought Together: The Ojai Retreat 3/9/2014
Ventura County's water crisis: Low water mark for basins
Clarifying the Discussion about California Drought and Climate Change [Significant Figures by Peter Gleick]

Walking with Cheryl Strayed on the Pacific Crest Trail

..because Strayed didn’t know what the hell she was doing, as she freely admits, she was kind of wonderfully dumb about it. To be blunt. This gives her story the drama of the sincere naif — in some glorious/awful sense, the story of youth versus experience.

Can I pay my respects to Cheryl Strayed's Wild? I won't be the first, after all — the Pacific Crest Trail Association (PCTA) has associated itself with Strayed and her extraordinary non-fiction memoir.

I've read the book, seen Strayed speak at UC Santa Barbara, and last fall walked the same first 90 miles or so through the Mojave Desert and into the start of the Sierras on Section F of the PCT that she did at the start of her trip. She got off to a harrowing start. I'm section hiking the trail (not through hiking as she did) and it hasn't been as difficult for me as it was for her but I confess I'm a fan of Wild. 

So maybe it's interesting to contrast my real-life experience on the trail with her dramatic telling. The irony is that though her story — both of her life and of her time on the trail — is more dramatic than most of ours, her story has an everywoman/everyman aspect, in that like most women she knew nothing about backpacking the PCT when she started, but she went ahead and did it anyhow, which most women (or men) would have the sense to not do. 

But because Strayed didn't know what the hell she was doing, as she freely admits, she was kind of wonderfully dumb about it. To be blunt. This gives her story the drama of the sincere naif — in some glorious/awful sense, the story of youth versus experience. At the start of what the PCTA calls Section F of the PCT, she writes:

I stood by the silent highway after [her ride] drove away. Small clouds of dust blew in swirling gusts beneath the glaring noon sky. I was at an elevation of nearly 3,800 feet, surrounded in all directions by beige, barren-looking mountains dotted with clusters of sagebrush, Joshua trees, and waist-high chaparral. I was standing at the western edge of the Moajve Desert and at the southern foot of the Sierra Nevada, the vast mountain range that stretched north for more than four hundred miles to Lassen Volcanic National Park, where it connected with the Cascade Range, which extended from northern California all theway through Oregon and Washington and beyond the Canadian border. Those two mountain ranges would be my world for the next three months; their crest, my home. On a fence post beyond the ditch I spied a palm-sized metal blaze that said PACIFIC CREST TRAIL. 

I was here. I could begin at last. 

It's wonderful, and it's a little portentuous. Here's a picture of that scene I took this fall, on an incongruously rainy fall day in the Mojave, but nonetheless this is what that trail looks like to start.  

PCTmarker