Kit Stolz

Charts of the week: Decline of Arctic Sea Ice

Via NatureClimate's feed, a great GIF-animated graph showing the diminshing Arctic sea ice in summer, heading towards zero in late summer perhaps as early as the 2020's. Some bloggers say even earlier.

Above chart works best if you click to enlarge. Chart below needs no enlargement.

Via RealClimate. They link to a blogger from New Zealand who offers a painfully funny forecast of the likely reaction to this among the close minded climate change minimizer crowd.

From Hot Topic:

When Arctic sea ice area sets a new record low in the next couple of weeks, the usual suspects¹ will say: “You can’t trust area, sea ice extent is the only valid metric“.

When Arctic sea ice extent sets a new record low in September, the following arguments will be run in parallel:

There will be a frantic search for a definition of extent in which a new record was not set

There will be a complaint that the satellite record has been blighted by the failure of a sensor and the calibrations needed to get a new sensor in operation have corrupted the record²

It will be claimed that it was all caused by the major Arctic storm that hit in August, and thus can’t be attributed to global warming³

It’s cyclical — it’s all happened before, in the 1930s⁴, and is therefore nothing unusual

That it’s irrelevant, because it’s not global and not happening where anyone lives so can’t possibly matter.

When the sea ice extent and area anomalies blow out to record levels in early October because of the delayed freeze-up, there will be silence.

When the re-freeze starts, and the Arctic basin is covered in ice once more (early December), Anthony Watts will report on the record rate of ice formation, calling it a “stunning recovery“.

So true. Have to check back to see how well Watts fulfills the projection.

What if Mars sent a rover to Earth?

Jim Morin has an idea…

Via McClatchey for 8/12/12.

Pussy Riot: a post-modern band imprisoned for attitude

Speaking of rebellious rockers…it's generally agreed, by both fans and skeptics, that rock and roll is all about attitude, so in these post-modern, post-truth times, it's only natural and proper that Pussy Riot, a Russian group that has never released a record, has become the biggest punk rock band in the world. More famous, with more famous friends (from Daft Punk to Paul McCartney) than any other punk band.

Not on the basis of their music, which is unexceptional, but on the basis of their self-described "impudence." Being outrageous in an Orthodox church, for instance. Shouting at the tyrant Putin, miming playing guitars, but with no sound, for thirty seconds. The perfect post-modern performance.

For which they were sentenced to two years in prison yesterday, a sentence that rewards their "impudence" with preposterous over-punishment.

This has occasioned much commentary, but none more telling than from Irish novelist Roddy Doyle, who on his Facebook page recounts a conversation (of his creation, we presume) at a pub, in his usual profane, sly, beguiling style:

-Pussy Riot.
-That’s just middle-age. It’ll sort itself ou’.
-No. The Russian young ones. The group, like.
-What abou’ them?
-I can’t get me head around it. Hooliganism motivated by religious hatred. What the fuck is tha’?
-It’s just the excuse.

-Wha’?
-It’s nothin’ to do with religion. They’re in jail cos Putin doesn’t like them.
-Is that all?
-Listen. Remember punk – back in the day, like?
-The Sex Pistols. God Save the Queen an’ tha’.
-Exactly.
-Brilliant.
-I wasn’t mad about it meself. But annyway. It blew the other music away.
-Glam rock.
-Putin loves it.
-Wha’?
-Glam rock.
-Fuck off.
-Serious. He’s mad into Gary Glitter.
-Tha’ makes sense. They prob’ly like the same videos.
-Ah now. Anyway. Fuckin’ Putin an’ the other cunts in the politburo all have platforms an’ silver suits, an’ he mimes along to I’m The Leader of the Gang an’ Do Yeh Wanna Touch Me.
-Ah, fuck off.
-I’m telling yeh. He’s been doin’ it for years. He fuckin’ hates punk.
-An’ that’s why those young ones are in jail?
-The Pistols made Gary Glitter look ridiculous an’ those three young ones make Putin look even more ridiculous.

Yes.

Irony alert: Important to note that Gary Glitter was once a huge star in the UK, with many hit songs, including the (nah nah nah nah, nah nah nah nah, hey hey, good bye) anthem often heard in sports arenas. Also important to note that he was convincted of possession of child pornography in the UK, and then, after fleeing charges on his yacht, traveling the world, and being booted out of Cambodia, again allegedly for sexual abuse of children, was arrested and convicted of child molestation in Vietnam.

Though in his 60's, Glitter served time — about two and a half years.

The semi-true story of “Rocking the Casbah”

Yet another day of stifling heat, but this time with rising humidity too! Time for a break.

Here's a tremendous cover of the great Clash song Rocking the Casbah, by Algerian rocker Rachid Taha. Except that probably Taha and his band of Algerian outcast rockers inspired it…see below.

From The Guardian (in 2007):

The French-Algerian singer Rachid Taha has a story about the first time he met the Clash. It was September 1981, and Taha bumped into all four members of the band just before they were due to play at the Théâtre Mogador in Paris. Taha gave them a copy of a demo tape by his band, Carte de Séjour (Residence Permit), an outfit from Lyon who combined Algerian rai with funk and punk rock. "They looked interested," remembers Taha, "but when they didn't get in touch, I thought nothing of it. Then, a few months later, I heard Rock the Casbah." He cackles mischievously. "Maybe they did hear it after all."

The incident has since gone down in French rock legend. Taha has recorded his own Arabised version of the song, entitled Rock el Kasbah, something he's since performed live with the Clash's Mick Jones. Jones only vaguely remembers meeting Taha in 1981, but both he and Joe Strummer did eventually get heavily into Taha's music. "Joe heard some Rachid tracks on Andy Kershaw's radio show some time in the 1990s," says Jones. "He used to ring me up and tell me about this fantastic Algerian guy that I should listen to. In fact, Joe and Rachid were going to meet up, but then Joe went and died. I'm not sure he knew that he'd actually met him at the Mogador all those years ago."

Rachid Taha wasn't the only musician to be inspired by the Clash on that seven-night residency. Just as the Sex Pistols show at Manchester's Lesser Free Trade Hall in June 1976 served as the catalyst for Morrissey, Ian Curtis, Mark E Smith and Mick Hucknall, the Clash's run at the Théâtre Mogador five years later was witnessed by a veritable who's who of French rock. Manu Chao was in the audience with friends who would later form Mano Negra, as was Helno and his ramshackle world music combo les Négresses Vertes, gypsy rockers Lo'Jo, members of anarchist punk collective Bérurier Noir, and Kortatu, the Basque ska-punk band formed by Fermin Muguruza.

That was the Clash at their best: stirring it up, making shit happen.

Via Vanessa Place.

Possible good news: El Niño conditions developing

For those of us who are suffering through seemingly endless heat and dryness, to hear of a possible change in the forecast is comforting, and yes, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center does see increased chances for an El Niño this fall.

Supported by model forecasts and the continued warmth across the Pacific Ocean, there is increased confidence for a weak-to-moderate El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2012-13. El Niño conditions are likely to develop during August or September 2012 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

Also reassuring — the forecast sees little chance of another La Niña.

Average August 2012 temperature in Phoenix: 100.2

As of today. That includes night: hasn't once fallen below 90 in weeks.

Map from a resident who — looking for a cool spot — cleverly overlaid a heat image of the city on a Google Earth map. After charting the cooler green locales (see link) Mark concluded he should live in the Phoenix Country Club.

21st century megadrought in the West

A new climatic projection for the western states and northern Mexico looks at drought over the past 1200 years and out to 2100. A graph from the study at Nature Geoscience tells the story best, as usual:

Here's the caption, slightly edited:

Reconstructed summer PDSI [Palmer Drought Severity Index] from 800 to 2006, five-year mean. Black rectangles show Stine no. 1 and Stine no. 2 megadroughts. Red circles denote five-year drought events as severe as the turn of the century event. Red line denotes the mean [of the lower graph, for normalized precipitation].

The upper graph, of drought severity is not easy, but disturbing, while the lower graph is scary for a resident of the Western U.S. Might have to read beyond the abstract, except that brilliantly Tom Ashcroft of On Point had a conversation on the drought in the western U.S. amd this research today On Point.

"We may be looking at a century of drought, or megadrought, this century," said Ashbrook, interviewing Christopher Williams, author of a scary recent op-ed: Hundred Year Forecast: Drought.

"The worst drought you saw in the West in 800 years?" asked Ashbrook.

Yes, Williams said, the l998-2004 drought in the Colorado basi was the worst in over an eon. As the subtropical dry zones expand, the Southwest will get much more droughty, forced by "human push" — greenhouse gas emissions.

Program was exemplary, right down to the usual complaints, but also got deep into the science with Richard Seagar, and deep into the politics with part of a speech from Barack Obama in hot, dry Iowa.

Seagar said that his recent study painted an even bleaker picture, but also appeared to doubt the specific claim that the most recent drought was the worst in 800 years. This proved difficult to untangle.

"That sounds like a dissent," said Ashbrook.

"I wouldn't say that," said Seagar. He agreed that the risk of drought had increased, "by large factors," but said it was too early to say it would be the new normal. Bickering ensued, as he suggested that yes, the Southwest would be hard hit, but wnter rains in the Midwest would prevent Dust Bowls.

The study actually didn't set out to study drought prevalence. It set out to forecast the diminishing ability of landscapes to store carbon.

No one contested that claim, which would add momentum to the warming. And Michael Wehner at Lawrence Livermore pointed out that the amount of climate change we've experienced to date will pale in comparison to what will be experienced this century in the summer if we can't reduce emissions.

"Hotter and drier summers," that's what to expect, concluded Seagar.

Obama to blame for drought: John Boehner (R – Ohio)

Today John Boehner, who leads the Republican majority in the House, pointed the finger of blame at President Obama for the drought withering the Midwest.

No, really.

According to the Financial Times (reg. required) he said that

"…the president continues to blame anyone and everyone for the drought but himself.”

Okay, maybe he just omitted a word or two. Seemingly Boehner meant to refer to legislation passed by the House but stalled in the Senate that would offer financial relief to farmers, says the LA Times. Democrats want to help farmers too, but have some different ideas on how best to do that, including conservation measures.

But that's complicated. So much easier to just blame the President, even for the worst drought in the Midwest in fifty years, according to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center:

Or is it that Boehner so accustomed to blaming the Democratic President for any and all problems in these United States that it's become a reflex action?

Update: in a clarification posted on his website, Boehner's office now says "that the president is blaming others for failing to respond to the drought when he has yet to urge Senate Democrats to adopt a bipartisan drought-relief measure passed by the House."

Ah! This is about Paul Ryan, whom the President charged with failing to compromise on the farm bill in Iowa today. Perhaps Boehner didn't want to give the President any ammuniition by mentioning Ryan's name.

How to be a nerd (at the Ojai Playwrights Conference)

Had a chance to write a story on the "word nerds" at the Ojai Playwrights Conference, the lucky young people taught by always eloquent and funny teacher/founder Kim Maxwell. Story should be of interest to anyone who likes comedy, I think. Here's the quote that best explains the class and Kim, in response to the question, why does she call her students "word nerds?":

"Nerds are the ones who don't fit in," [Maxwell] said. "That's why they are my chosen people. They always say the wrong thing, they act the wrong way, they're awkward, and that is the source of their creativity."

Angelina Martin has a dialogue with Newt Gingrich, in pic by Carmen Smyth.

Global Weirding: bizarre summer storm in the Arctic

Via Dot Earth, a fascinating discussion of a truly weird summer storm over the Arctic Ocean. Here's what it looks like from the NASA satellite Aqua, with Greenland's ice sheet at lower left:

Summer Storm Spins Over Arctic

Andrew Revkin points to the uncertainty about what this means for Arctic sea ice, but to me the expert William Chapman at the Arctic Sea Ice Blog sounds a different note — this major breakup of sea ice is unprecedented.

That large patch of sea ice in the East Siberian Sea is almost entirely detached from the main ice pack. This is something I for one have never seen before, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's unprecedented in the satellite era. We have speculated a lot about this in previous melting seasons, but now the moment seems to have finally arrived. The fact that the ice pack can get divided like this, is yet another sign that the ice is exceptionally thin, as thin ice gets pushed around more easily and melts quicker, leaving open space between thicker, slower moving ice floes.

Not easy for a novice to see what he's talking about in the picture. Revkin talks to Chapman, an Arctic expert with whom he has traveled to the frozen north, and Chapman speaks of the strangeness of this storm — but does suggest these sort of polar lows are more likely on a warming planet.

This storm is intense for any time of year, but especially for summer, when the weather is normally fairly benign in the Arctic. This storm formed and intensified near the Beaufort Sea and moved to the central Arctic Ocean where it will slowly lose its intensity over the next several days. Ordinarily, the Beaufort Sea and the Arctic Ocean are dominated by high pressure, so having a low pressure system form and intensify here is quite uncommon. Although, it has been happening with more frequency over the past few decades as pressures have dropped significantly in the Arctic during this time and are projected to drop even more during the next century by the global climate models.

This is only the eighth such storm in the last 34 years in August in the Arctic. They're calling it The Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012.