Sceptics trumpet “climate science crisis” story…that supports global warming

The most popular of denier sites, Watts Up with That, trumpets a major article in Der Spiegel, Germany's most influential magazine, about the controversy in climate science.

The article puts what sounds like spin on a lot of quotes, and claims that Dr. Phil Jones, at the heart of the so-called climategate controversy, is "finished."

What magazine has the right to condemn that way?

After all, he was exonerated this week by a report commissioned by the House of Commons, which concluded:

The report states that “the focus on CRU and Professor Phil Jones,
Director of CRU, in particular, has largely been misplaced,” and that
Dr. Jones’s actions were “in line with common practice in the climate
science community,” and the CRU’s “analyses have been repeated and the
conclusions have been verified.” [my emphasis]

In other words, the consensus stands.

But for the sake of argument, let's assume that Jones is a villain, and well-known skeptic McIntryre a hero, and believe every grain of salt the piece attempts to throw on the consensus.

Still, if you read it, it's a fact that in the end it stands behind the reality of global warming. Yes, there will be winners as well as losers, and northern Germany might stand to benefit in some ways…just as Southern California will lose in a lot of ways. But that doesn't change the big picture.

For example:

Despite the controversy, most climatologists agree that in the end the
general view of climate change will not have changed significantly.
Almost all share the basic conviction that we are headed for warmer
times.

[cut]

Meanwhile, satellite observations indicate that the rate at which the
ice is melting has increased. Glaciologists speculate that parts of the
Western Antarctic and, to a greater extent, Greenland, are melting more
quickly than initially assumed.

[cut]

But many scientists are reluctant to make new predictions, because
the inner processes in the gigantic ice caps remain insufficiently
understood. Reliable data on the behavior of calving glaciers has only
existed for about 10 years. Greenland's glaciers are currently spitting a
particularly large amount of ice into the ocean. 

[cut]

Nevertheless, a clear trend is emerging in most simulations. "In places
where it already rains a lot today, it will rain even more," says Erich
Roeckner, a veteran climatologist who has spent years simulating changes
in precipitation in a warmer climate. "And where it's dry today, it'll
be even drier in the future."

[cut]

It will become more arid, however, in many subtropical regions.
Industrialized nations, which bear the greatest culpability for global
warming, will be most heavily affected. The new drought zones will
probably lie in the southern United States and Australia, as well as in
South Africa. In Europe, Mediterranean countries like Spain, Italy and
Greece will struggle with even drier climates than they already have
today.

[cut]

Since the first rough estimate was made, many other good reasons have
emerged to support the two-degree target, says Schellnhuber. At the
same time, however, the constant appearance of new studies has also made
the picture significantly more complex.

Coral reefs, for example, could already be doomed if the oceans heat
up by 1.5 degrees Celsius.

[cut]

“Two degrees is not a magical limit — it’s clearly a political goal,”
says Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research (PIK). “The world will not come to an end right
away in the event of stronger warming, nor are we definitely saved if
warming is not as significant. The reality, of course, is much more
complicated.”

Catch that second-to-last sentence? The two degrees Celsius limit could be too high to save us?

Is this not what James Hansen has been saying, and what the 350.org climate change activism group have been advocating for — not merely an upper boundary on CO2, but a reduction of CO2 in the atmosphere? 

Perhaps the world will survive a 2C warming without trauma. Perhaps not. Perhaps we should prepare?

That's what those who are concerned about global warming want — global action to make the best of a big change, to increase resilience, and limit our chances of disaster. And that's what deniers refuse to admit: It's a problem.

In the end, there's none so blind as those who will not see global warming.

[In a perhaps vain attempt to open some eyes, the piece includes a picture of Venice, one of many cities around the world — including New York — that will be stressed by the expected rise in sea level and the inevitably stronger storm surges that will result.]

Venice

Antichrist: Don’t blame me for Fed gov actions

In an exclusive interview with the Ojai Post, the Antichrist spoke out against militia groups and "other bad actors" who are arming themselves against his reappearance on earth and said he had nothing to do with the Federal government.

"Don't blame me if the FBI is on your case, because you're a acting like an idiot," said Satan's chief agent on earth,, in a reference to the Hutaree militia group in Michigan.

Nine members of the group, which claims to be preparing for war against the Antichrist, were arrested by the FBI on Saturday.

"These people are a joke," said the Antichrist, speaking on the phone from an undisclosed location. "Running around in the woods with rifles. What do they think I'm going to come back as? A deer?"

"I may be evil, but I'm not stupid," he added.

No photographs of the AntiChrist are known to exist, although he is mentioned in the Bible, and has often been painted, by artists such as Signorelli.

Antichrist In his Biblical appearances, the AntiChrist can appear to be peaceful and wise, and even mislead the well-known religious leader Jesus Christ, while at the same plotting to bring about chaos and disaster to the world.

Speaking over the sound of a television tuned to SportsCenter, the Antichrist went on to say that due to recent advances in body art, he has a "much cooler" Mark of the Beast than he did in his Biblical days.

He claimed that when he does make public appearances, he may not be recognized, even by his fans and enemies, which he said include militia groups, horror movie makers, religious leaders, and rock bands.

"These people think I'm some kind of cliche," he said. "Jesus H. Christ! At least He respects me."

In other news, Michigan Savings and Loan announced plans to foreclose on the home of David Brian Stone, the leader of the Hutaree militia group. The bank said the jailed militia group leader had failed to make payments on a loan of $379,000.

christian_militia.jpg

No good deed goes unpunished — this time, by mudsnails

A well-intentioned water quality team backed by a prominent environmental group may have inadvertently introduced an overwhelmingly pestilent invasive species to Southern California.

That's at the heart of an excellent story from Jill Leovy at the Los Angeles Times yesterday. 

Mudsnails now infest the Malibu Creek, Trancas Creek, Ramirez Creek and Solstice Creek watersheds. They've claimed Malibou Lake, Malibu Lagoon and Cold Creek.

In an ironic twist, the spread of the infestation locally may be the result of environmentalists' efforts to improve stream-water quality in the Santa Monica Mountains, an effort [stream restoration expert Mark] Abramson spearheaded.

Equipment used by contractors and volunteers to help test water for groups such as Heal the Bay may have spread the mudsnails from stream to stream. The tiny mollusks cling to gear like fuzz to Velcro. Mudsnail infestations have cropped up where monitoring was completed.

"I wish I could say" it's not from monitoring, "but I can't," Abramson said. "It is really depressing for me. I had a horrible time at first."

Mudsnails are extremely bad news. Tiny but hideously reproductive, so far they have been impossible to control outside their native New Zealand. The tough-minded can learn more here.

No good deed goes unpunished.

That's the hateful-to-contemplate but too-often-true adage that comes to mind.

Attributed to Oscar Wilde, Clare Booth Luce, and various others, it's actually been in currency so long no one has yet tracked down its first utterance, according to the late great word scholar William Safire, among others.

Here's a picture of the bad guys, from the aforelinked informational site put up by a coalition of agencies and environmental groups.  

Mudsnails


“Follow your path, provided it goes up” — Pierre Boulez

Wise words from the great Pierre Boulez, in a lovely profile written by Mark Swed of The Los Angeles Times. How pleasant to hear the witty, thoughtful, bold Boulez speak out, mostly about music, but also about modernity, individuality, aging — on and on. Some folks deserve their fame; he's one.

Let's call this the quote of the day, and highlight it:

I say follow your path — provided it goes up. That's my definition of
activity.

Makes me want to get out into the mountains, even though of course Boulez wasn't thinking of that.

Here's the man himself, conducting. He disdains a stick, and expects his musicians to follow the slightest of his gestures.

They do — with the utmost of respect. 

Boulezconducts

How was that El Nino for you, SoCal?

Emily Green's Chance of Rain posts on the rainy season we had, and our usual dry six months to come, going to Bill Patzert for the meteorolgical crux.

In response to a question, the famous forecaster from JPL/NASA said:

After the Vernal Equinox (lMarch 20th), the
Northern Hemisphere begins to rapidly warm up. This expands the North Pacific High and shrinks the North Pacific Low.  As the High expands and strengthens, storms
weaken and go farther to the north of California. Also, winds from the
north (the eastern segment of the High) get stronger and upwelling along
our coast picks up. Cooler water, more marine layer; thus, May gray and
June gloom.  The High is strengthening, northerly winds are becoming
steadier, there is more coastal and inland fog, and no North Pacific
storms … our dry six months.

In other words, the pattern is beginning its usual shift. The rain is on the way out, it's warming rapidly, and our spring/summer/fall is coming.

So: How was that El Nino winter for you, Southern California?

In our little nook of Southern California, Upper Ojai, it was lovely. Rainfall is coming it at about 123% of normal. County wide it appears to be almost exactly what forecaster Terry Schaeffer told me back in January, in a story on forecasting El Nino back in January for the Reporter.

Schaeffer predicted that we would have a normal winter, plus about 15%. And a very enjoyable winter it was, too. Everyone I know has been raving about it…here's how it looked in Upper Ojai last weekend.

IMG_5123

Business “Study” of CA’s Global Warming Law Bunk, Experts Say

When the word "study" is used to describe an analysis prepared by two professors at an accredited university, one expects a certain standard of thought and fairness.

So it's genuinely shocking to discover that a "study" looking at California's ground-breaking global warming law, AB 32, by two professors at Sacramento State is so flawed as to be useless, according to follow-up analyses by the Legislative Analyst's office, and by professors at Stanford and UCLA. 

The study found that the law would cost households in CA nearly $4000 a year. Nonsense, say experts.

According to the LAO, speaking of work by Varshney and another professor, Dennis Tootelian:

"Both of the two studies…have major problems involving both data,
methodology, and analysis. As a result of these shortcomings, we believe
that their principal findings are unreliable."

And professors James Sweeney and Matthew Kahn, although polite, are no less damning in The Los Angeles Times, calling the work of Varshney and Tootelian "highly flawed," "based on poor logic and unsound economic analysis."

Really, they're too polite. Here's an example: 

For cars, they agree that more fuel-efficient cars will save consumers
$360 a year. But in an inexplicable twist of logic, they decide that
because most people will not buy new cars, they count the fuel savings
as a cost increase of $360 per year for every car owned in California. A
saving for some becomes a cost for everyone in the Varshney/Tootelian
analysis.

Huh? How can a savings that accrues to those who buy new cars become a cost to those who already own older cars?

When pressed, the Sacramento State profs insist that

Rather than question the logic behind AB 32 or cost of regulations
studies or attack their reliability, critics should talk to small
businesses about the current economic challenges confronting
California.

In other words, they feel the pain of small business. Okay, but why does that excuse misleading?

National Academy of Sciences backs bio opinions in Delta

Over at John Fleck's shop in Albuquerque, the reporter looks at the release of a National Academy of Sciences report on the Delta. The unavoidable news is that the panel concluded that restrictions on pumping to save the endangered Delta Smelt were "scientifically justified," and said so numerous times in the report.

But to no one's surprise, the report's call for "clarification" and doubts about setting aside an 8000-acre area to improve the tiny fish's chance at survival were interpreted in numerous ways by numerous folk.

Just look at the headlines, compiled by Aquafornia:

Two things strike me about the $%750,000 report, which was ordered by Senator Dianne Feinstein, apparently at the bequest of pistachio farmer Stewart Resnick.

First, the scientists complain repeatedly about the inability to make final judgments given the extremely short time frame they had to study the issue (two months).

They have another year to write a full report, which no doubt will be more thoughtful and more detailed, and probably less read.

Second, to their credit, the NAS makes the report easy to access…

http://www.nap.edu/napbookwrapper.swf

Republicans predict “Armageddon” and “ruin” for nation

Karl Rove, the infamous Republican strategist, all but froths at the mouth this morning on This Week, saying that it's a "gigantic disaster."

Meanwhile John Boehner, the House minority leader, said that it was "Armageddon" and the change to come will "ruin our country," according to Fox News.

Could this be what they're talking about? NASA's prediction that this will be the warmest year ever? (The red line to the left is the global temperature record to date; the yellow is the previous high.)

Warmestyear

Uh, no. The GOP is upset because health care reform legislation passed against their wishes.

Oh well, whatever, nevermind…