For California, the Department of Water Resources releases an "experimental" long-term forecast, based on ocean indices. Lead forecaster Dr. Klaus Wolter of NOAA predicts — as he did last year — dryness, but opens the door to the possibility of an El Nino developing in spring. The forecast's three central predictions for the 2014 waterContinue reading “SoCal 2014 water year forecast: Dryness, but…”
Tag Archives: El Niño
President Obama talks climate: 12 hottest years, in last 15
The earth’s getting warmer: “Yes, it’s true that no single event makes a trend. But the fact is, the 12 hottest years on record have all come in the last 15.” President Obama, in the State of the Union Address: You can see that in NOAA’s record of global temperatures. From Ezra Klein's Wonkblog. Weather nerdsContinue reading “President Obama talks climate: 12 hottest years, in last 15”
No El Nino or La Nina this year, just La Nada
Like the headline the Star put on my story from Saturday: No El Nino or La Nina this year, just La Nada. The crucial quote couple of graphs from the story, featuring media star and friend Bill Patzert: Veteran forecaster Bill Patzert, who works with the NASA-affiliated Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena on long-range forecastsContinue reading “No El Nino or La Nina this year, just La Nada”
What is going on with the alleged El Nino of 2012?
Six months ago, temperatures in the equatorial Pacific suggested that, after two years under the influence of La Niña, which tends to mean cold dry winters here in Southern California, that our ocean was turning towards an El Niño condition. Under that condition, warm temperatures and westerlies in the equatorial Pacific predispose those of usContinue reading “What is going on with the alleged El Nino of 2012?”
Possible good news: El Niño conditions developing
For those of us who are suffering through seemingly endless heat and dryness, to hear of a possible change in the forecast is comforting, and yes, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center does see increased chances for an El Niño this fall. Supported by model forecasts and the continued warmth across the Pacific Ocean, thereContinue reading “Possible good news: El Niño conditions developing”
La Nina expected back this year
As is often the case, after El Nino. But this McClatchey/Fresno Bee piece is an unusually good one, complete with a charticle designed for web postings. La Niña tends to influence wetter winters around the Canadian border, but drier conditions along the Mexican border. So Southern California — Los Angeles and San Diego — consistentlyContinue reading “La Nina expected back this year”
How was that El Nino for you, SoCal?
Emily Green's Chance of Rain posts on the rainy season we had, and our usual dry six months to come, going to Bill Patzert for the meteorolgical crux. In response to a question, the famous forecaster from JPL/NASA said: After the Vernal Equinox (lMarch 20th), the Northern Hemisphere begins to rapidly warm up. This expands theContinue reading “How was that El Nino for you, SoCal?”
El Nino sceptic repents as rain continues to fall
Bill Patzert and "The Los Angeles Times" are likethis, as the gossip columnists say, and deservedly so: the newspaper is by far the biggest in the West, and Patzert is the most interesting forecaster in our region, perhaps the country. For one, he admits when he gets it wrong. How many other forecasters confess? HeContinue reading “El Nino sceptic repents as rain continues to fall”
El Nino 2010: Small, medium, large…or wanna-be?
The infamous El Niño, bringer of warm winters and rain to Southern California, is back, NOAA says, and thanks to a surprisingly wet November, we're still ahead of normal in our total rainfall for this water year. Wouldn't you like to know what that really means? The truth is, no one knows. But for theContinue reading “El Nino 2010: Small, medium, large…or wanna-be?”
Acorns Abundant This Fall: El Nino On the Way?
According to climatologists, it's going to be wet this winter. Experts on El Niño, the well-known global weather circulation pattern that often brings warm winters and heavy rain to the West Coast, recently released a chart showing the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strengthening across the Pacific. This is good news for those of usContinue reading “Acorns Abundant This Fall: El Nino On the Way?”
Kit Stolz 